BOP is hosted by Crystal Tech. Click here to sign up.

Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 14, 2015

What do you mean, you don't like my bangs?

New at BOP:
Share & Save
Digg Button  
Print this column
More like Fifty Shades of Green, am I right?

Fifty Shades of Grey

The erotic thriller based on the wildly successful novel starts with $30.2 million on Friday, with $8.6 million of that coming from Thursday night showings. That’s the second best opening day of the year so far, falling just short of American Sniper’s $30.3 million first day of wide release last month.

With that opening, it appears we can dial back expectations that Fifty Shades of Grey will break the $83.8 million February opening weekend record of The Passion of the Christ, set in 2004. But there is a tremendous wild card at play: Valentine’s Day. Romantic films always see a bump on this day, regardless of the day of the week it is, and Fifty Shades of Grey might be a huge beneficiary of Saturday being the 14th. For reference, the appropriately named Valentine’s Day saw its best day of box office come on the 14th, which happened to be a Sunday, sending it to a $56.2 million weekend back in 2010. Meanwhile, 2012’s five-hanky weeper The Vow, released when Valentine’s Day fell on a Tuesday, spiked from $3.3 million on its first Monday to a massive $11.5 million on Valentine’s Day proper. So yeah, it’s a good box office day.

The other strange aspect to this weekend is that it’s a holiday weekend, though the President’s Day box office effect tends to be minimal compared to other holidays, it’s something to keep an eye on. I expect Fifty Shades of Grey to have a strong Saturday (it will easily crush the $23.3 million earned by Valentine’s Day to take the February 14th record) that duplicates Friday’s take, which places it at $79.4 million for the weekend and a four day total of about $90 million.


Kingsman: The Secret Service

The comic property adaptation comes in with a pretty strong $10.4 million on Friday, buoyed by being a well-received alternative to Fifty Shades of Grey. The action comedy starring Colin Firth and Samuel L. Jackson has its eyes on becoming a franchise, and a weekend of $29 million with a four day total of $35 million means those plans might come to fruition.

The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Last weekend’s champion, the SpongeBob movie sequel falls 56% from last Friday to $6.5 million, which is a bit higher than expected. This is definitely a film that benefits from the long weekend, so it will end up racing Kingsman for second place on the weekend. Last weekend it turned a strong Saturday into a 3.71 weekend multiplier and $55.3 million weekend, and this weekend it looks to earn $25.7 million for the weekend and about $31 million over four days.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Fifty Shades of Grey 79.4
2 Kingsman: The Secret Service 28.9
3 The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water 25.7
4 American Sniper 14.2
5 Jupiter Ascending 6.2
6 Paddington 3.7
7 The Imitation Game 2.9
8 Seventh Son 2.7
9 The Wedding Ringer 2.3
10 Black or White 2.0



Need to contact us? E-mail a Box Office Prophet.
BOP is hosted by Crystal Tech. Click here to sign up.
Thursday, February 22, 2018
© 2018 Box Office Prophets, a division of One Of Us, Inc.