They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?

Handicapping the Technical Races: Part I

By J. Don Birnam

February 2, 2015

Where are all our Oscar nominations?

New at BOP:
Share & Save
Digg Button  
Print this column
Alexandre Desplat composed the scores of two Best Picture nominees and thus heard his name twice on nominations morning, one for The Grand Budapest Hotel and the other for The Imitation Game. But, they may have to give him five nods one year to ensure a victory - given the unfortunate losing record he has with the broader Academy (at eight nominations now with no wins, he’s close to the living record of 11 held by Thomas Newman). The Imitation Game may be Desplat’s closest chance at an Oscar yet, as it was the conventional-wisdom pick early in the year. It is the easiest place to reward the obviously beloved Best Picture nominee that scored writing, acting, directing, and editing nods, but may go home empty-handed if it doesn’t pull out a win here. The Grand Budapest’s soundtrack, by contrast, is to me a bit less obvious or moving and I would be genuinely surprised if it emerged victorious.

But watch out for Jóhann Jóhannsson’s score for The Theory of Everything for the win here. I thought it was the most moving of the bunch - it was subtle at first and then made its presence felt. It was the one that most matched the mood of the movie and led it, and it has already won the Golden Globe. Given that the voters’ ballots do not list the name of the composer, only the movie, it is no surprise that since Howard Shore won for the Return of the King soundtrack. Winners here have been relative unknowns and in most instances first-time nominees. Thus, I don’t think Jóhannsson’s obscurity will affect the outcome. Right now I’m predicting Theory of Everything with the Imitation Game the only potential spoiler.




Advertisement



Best Original Song

The almost-defunct Oscar category is now alive and well with a plethora of choices for a branch which, like many others, likes to do its own thing. Most surprising to me was the omission of Lana Del Ray’s moving “Big Eyes” from the Amy Adams movie by the same name in favor of the inclusion of “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” from the obscure documentary Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me. That documentary was snubbed, however, by its branch. Indeed, it appears as if this year the Song branch had the role of fixer-upper, nominating movies that were expected to score elsewhere only to see their chances relegated to this category. The LEGO Movie, mysteriously shut out of the Best Animated Feature race, scored here for “Everything is Awesome,” and the controversial Selma, seemingly snubbed by the directors and actors, got in for Common’s “Glory,” which also won the Globe. “Grateful,” from the otherwise ignored Beyond the Lights landed Diane Warren her first Oscar nomination. And, rounding out the nominees is, to me, the most deserving of the bunch, “Lost Stars” from the moving Begin Again, directed by John Carney (Once).

The real question here is: will the Academy look to fix perceived snubs in other races here? If they do, I doubt the song from Glen Campbell will benefit, as that documentary isn’t exactly high on the list of unexpected omissions. Nor do I think The LEGO Movie’s song will benefit - I simply doubt Academy voters care about animation-category snubs. More likely, however, is that Selma will see its Oscar victory in this race. Not only is the song good, but it already won the Globe, and it’s literally the only place to reward that movie other than a death-defying, statistically improbable Best Picture victory for the film.


Continued:       1       2       3

     


 
 

Need to contact us? E-mail a Box Office Prophet.
Friday, April 26, 2024
© 2024 Box Office Prophets, a division of One Of Us, Inc.