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Weekend Forecast for January 30 - February 1, 2015

By Reagen Sulewski

January 30, 2015

The one on the right is clearly trying to decipher his cut of the winnings.

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I find myself wondering exactly who the audience for this film is supposed to be, as it features a whole lot of things that people would really rather not talk about, and that need to be handled with some grace and skill to be worth paying for a ticket to be uncomfortable. With dismal reviews, under 2,000 venues and a lead actor who has not been seen as a draw by himself for about two decades, I'd say we're in single digit territory, maybe around $5 million.

Our third wide release, The Loft, is a remake of a Belgian thriller, about five men who share a secret apartment for hanky-panky away from their wives, so already we're off on the right foot with these guys. The trouble really starts when an unknown woman is found dead - presumably murdered - in the apartment, leading to waves of suspicion and paranoia amongst them. I mean, philandery is one thing, but now they'll never get their security deposit back.

Starring Karl Urban, James Marsden, Wentworth Miller, Matthias Schoenarts and Eric Stonestreet (~one of these things is not like the other/one of these things just doesn't belong~) as the suspects, this is one of those things that on paper looks like a good idea, but in execution seems like poorly done Hitchcock. Four years in the can, this is being given a pity release with no advance screenings, little advertising and under 2,000 venues. If this manages $3 million it should count itself lucky.

We have one last expansion of a 2014 film to deal with, Oscar's odd-man out, A Most Violent Year. Directed by J.C. Chandor, it stars Oscar Isaac as an immigrant rising up the ladder of crime in New York City in 1981. With echos of The Godfather and an attractive cast that also includes perennial contender Jessica Chastain, David Oyelowo and Alessandro Nivola, it won three awards from the National Board of Review and seemed poised to make a splash at the end of the year. And then... nothing. Zilch. Nada. Negatory. Completely shut out of the Oscars, its marketing campaign deflated like, well no I'm not going to make the au currant joke here, but you can fill in that idea yourself. It's only earned about $1 million so far, and is getting a bump up to around 900 venues, which is barely enough to be a national campaign, but I guess they're trying, at least. Look for about $3 million this weekend, and hopefully an end to December 31st release slates.




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American Sniper repeated at the top spot last weekend, which was expected, but with $64 million, which wasn't quite. That qualifies as “leggy”, and got it to $200 million in just ten days of wide release. There's some significant crossover of its target audience with the Super Bowl, so it ought to be hit more than most, but you also expect people who've made plans to see this to make time on days other than Sunday. I'd still look for Clint Eastwood's opus about tortured warriors to make about $39 million this weekend.

Following that we have Paddington, being a bit leggy itself, catering to the youth crowd, which should hit $7 million, The Boy Next Door, which earned $14 million last weekend despite howlingly bad reviews, and should fall to $6 million this frame, and The Wedding Ringer, which should slide in with $5 million in its third weekend. The Imitation Game continues its mild expansion, and should hit $6 million again this weekend, proving to be the film benefiting the most from Oscar attention.


Forecast: Weekend of January 30-February 1, 2015
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 American Sniper 3,885 +180 38.9
2 Project Almanac 2,893 New 13.4
3 Paddington 3,303 -52 7.7
4 The Boy Next Door 2,615 +13 6.5
5 The Imitation Game 2,402 +377 6.0
6 The Wedding Ringer 2,820 -183 5.2
7 Black or White 1,823 New 5.0
8 Selma 1,714 -332 3.7
9 The Loft 1,841 New 3.3
10 A Most Violent Year 818 +750 3.2

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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