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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 10, 2015

He really hates robocalls.

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Taken 3

Liam Neeson’s very particular set of skills return for one more go and starts with an outstanding $14.7 million on Friday. While Taken opened with $9.4 million and a $24.7 million in 2009 and then became the poster child for old school legs, Taken 3’s Friday is down a bit from the $18.3 million Taken 2 earned on its first day in October 2012. This is still fine and to be expected, as there’s some obvious franchise fatigue and also “because it’s January,” though the latter argument is holding less and less water as the January record ($41.5 million) set by last year’s Ride Along is suddenly in danger.

Taken 2 had a weekend multiplier of 2.7 as Saturday was virtually identical to its Friday total. I expect something similar here, and it will fall just short of the January opening weekend record and $40 million, as it earns $39.7 million for the weekend.




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Selma

Expanding into wide release, likely Best Picture nominee Selma earns $3.8 million on Friday after having strong per theater earnings during its awards eligibility run. The story of the Civil Rights movement in Alabama in the late '60s should string together a few solid weeks of earnings, especially with the announcement of nominations coming next week. This weekend, it should finish with $11.7 million, and is well on its way to passing its $20 million reported budget.

Notable Holdovers

It’s the post 12 Days of Box Office collapse for everything else in the top ten. Last weekend’s The Woman in Black 2 enjoys one more day as 2015’s top film as it falls a ridiculous 81% from last Friday to $1.5 million. After winning the holiday box office season, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies drops 70% to $2.5 million. Even The Imitation Game falls 26% after doubling its number of theaters. It’s bad all the way around, trust me.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Taken 3 39.7
2 Selma 11.7
3 Unbroken 7.3
4 The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies 7.2
5 Into the Woods 7.1
6 The Imitation Game 6.3
7 Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb 4.7
8 The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death 4.1
9 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 3.1
10 Annie 2.8

     


 
 

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