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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 1, 2014

Bright lights, big city, creepy Gyllenhaal.

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With this year’s calendar configuration, the studios mostly took a pass this weekend offering nothing terribly exciting in the way of new releases.

Nightcrawler

The only new release in the top ten is Jake Gyllenhaal’s Nightcrawler, which is not an X-Men spinoff but a dark crime thriller, earning $3.2 million on Friday. While that doesn’t seem like much, Friday being Halloween will mean it’s the worst box office day of the weekend. The last time this happened was 2008 when High School Musical 3 won the weekend with a 9.1 multiplier. That is not a typo. A more likely comparison is perhaps Zack and Miri Make a Porno, which earned a 4.58 multiplier in its opening weekend. I’d think a significant Saturday and Sunday bump is enough to win the weekend with $12.8 million.

Ouija

Being Halloween, last weekend’s horror entry stays on top for one more day as it drops 59% from last Friday with $3.4 million. I give it good odds to have the worst weekend multiplier in the top ten (in 2008, Saw V won Halloween but then dropped to fourth place Saturday and Sunday and had a 3.07 multiplier on the weekend). Ouija looks to have just enough left in it to point to a $10 million second weekend.




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Before I Go to Sleep/Saw 10th Anniversary

Also released this weekend were Nicole Kidman in Before I Go to Sleep and the 10th anniversary reissue of Saw. Neither was a box office factor as they earned $570,000 and $320,000 respectively. Even a big weekend bump won’t send them into the top ten.

Notable Holdovers

John Wick declines 67% from last Friday to $1.8 million but should be a big beneficiary of the depressed Friday, and a weekend of around $7.5 million is where it likely ends up.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Nightcrawler 12.8
2 Ouija 10.0
3 John Wick 7.5
4 Fury 7.4
5 Gone Girl 7.1
6 St. Vincent 6.5
7 The Book of Life 4.8
8 Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day 3.8
9 The Judge 3.2
10 Dracula Untold 2.9

     


 
 

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