Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

August 6, 2014

And I don't give a damn 'bout my bad reputation.

New at BOP:
Share & Save
Digg Button  
Print this column
Peter Quill and his new alien friends simply will not stop guarding the galaxy. For the fifth straight day, the motley crew star in the most popular movie in North America. And as is almost always the case on movies in release on Tuesday, the film’s box office total increased from Monday.

Guardians of the Galaxy earned $11.9 million yesterday on the heels of an $11.7 million tally on Monday. That daily increase was duplicated by every other title in the top ten yesterday. Updating the stats I introduced in last Wednesday’s piece, top ten films have increased from Monday to Tuesday an astounding 79 times out of 80. I think we can safely describe that as a pattern. If you missed last week’s column – how dare you! – understand that the week of July 4th is not included in this data. The presence of the holiday alters the daily box office mechanics. On regular summer days, the shock would be if a movie did NOT increase in revenue from Monday to Tuesday.

With regards to five-day performance, Marvel’s latest blockbuster has now grossed $118 million domestically. It has narrowed the gap with Transformers: Age of Extinction, the current number one film of the summer, down to less than $3 million. Keep in in mind that Transformers 4 opened $5.7 million higher than Guardians of the Galaxy. That advantage has been cut in half after only two weekdays of box office.

Age of Extinction earned a combined $20.9 million over its first two weekdays. That total represents a 21% hold from its $100 million opening weekend. Guardians of the Galaxy has earned $23.6 million, which is a 25% hold from its $94.3 million opening weekend. You do not need to have a ton of experience with box office analysis to recognize that the Disney film is performing a great deal better on weekdays thus far. The particularly surprising aspect of this hold is that Age of Extinction was released during a time that is historically better for weekday box office. The sweet spot occurs from mid-June to the end of July. We are obviously in August now, so Guardians of the Galaxy is receiving less summer weekday box office inflation. It is doing more despite having less opportunity.




Advertisement



With $118 million in the bank after only five days of North American release, the Marvel title has also torpedoed the box office run of the current number one of 2014, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. The Avengers spin-off (don’t nitpick, nerds) opened ever so slightly larger than Guardians of the Galaxy, yet its five-day total was “only” $108.2 million. The manner in which Guardians is almost $10 million ahead comes down to a single factor. It is summer weekday box office inflation. The Winter Soldier’s first two weekdays enjoyed $13.2 million of revenue. That total represents only 56% of what Guardians has managed.

Whenever you think about summer inflation, this is a blueprint example. Both are Marvel titles that are similarly well received. Their Rotten Tomatoes scores are currently 89% and 92%. Each claims an A Cinemascore. Captain America is an established character who has already appeared in three different films in the Marvel Universe while Guardians of the Galaxy is a whopping five days old. There is simply no other reason why the newer film would be performing so much better on its first two weekdays other than standard summer weekdays box office inflation.

What everyone should take from this is that as many movies as possible should be scheduled in the mid-June to mid-August portion of the calendar. It is basically free mid-week money for studios. I say all of this before I wryly note that Warner Bros. just announced that the Superman/Batman movie has been moved from the first week of May to…March. As my wife says, “DC: Making bad calls since...well, always.”

Finally, I guess I should also mention that Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods debuted in theaters yesterday. If the title sounds vaguely familiar, you are either a Dragon Ball Z fan or you sort of remember a Chow Yun-Fat movie. Anyway, this animated movie that I swear I am not making up finished in sixth place with a little under $1.1 million from 692 locations. If you have never heard of this and think I'm pranking you, that is a totally valid response.


     


 
 

Need to contact us? E-mail a Box Office Prophet.
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
© 2024 Box Office Prophets, a division of One Of Us, Inc.