Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

August 5, 2014

All of these movies will open to at least $90 million.

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Guardians of the Galaxy continues to move forward in its attempt to win the summer box office campaign. On Monday, it earned a sizzling $11.7 million. Common sense should indicate that this is a strong number, but I realize that this is the Internet. So, you want someone like me to do your homework for you. No worries. I got your back.

The most direct comparison for Guardians of the Galaxy is Transformers: Age of Extinction. It is, after all, the primary competition for the summer crown. On its first Monday, the fourth Michael Bay abomination earned $10.5 million, bringing its four-day total to $110.5 million. Note that this title crossed the $100 million barrier in only three days. Guardians of the Galaxy reached that landmark yesterday, which was its fourth day. It now has a running total of $106 million. Given that Age of Extinction was a sequel and opened $5.7 million higher on opening weekend, what Guardians of the Galaxy accomplished yesterday is extremely impressive.

Another important point is that if exclude Memorial Day due to its holiday inflation, Guardians of the Galaxy has claimed the largest Monday of any “summer” release. By summer, I am discussing every Monday from the first week of May until now. Transformers 4 had previously held that title as well. Simply stated, Guardians of the Galaxy is poised to take away everything Age of Extinction can claim as a positive in North America.

The performance of Guardians of the Galaxy yesterday is hardly a surprise. The movie scored the coveted A Cinemascore on the heels of largely glowing reviews. Its goal at this point will be to chase down the top five domestic releases of 2014 to date. Those titles are X-Men: Days of Future Past ($231.7 million), Maleficent ($234.7 million), Transformers: Age of Extinction ($241.2 million), The Lego Movie ($257.7 million) and Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($259.3 million). Note that all of those films are technically still in release, as even The Lego Movie earned over $134,000 last week. Realistically, Age of Extinction declined 50% week over week from $9.45 million during its 25th through 31st days of release to $4.75 million last week. Thus, it is unlikely to reach number one. That makes The Winter Soldier and its $259.3 million the primary target.




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Not including Monday’s total, Guardians of the Galaxy needed $165 million after opening weekend to become the top film of the year. For comparison, Captain America 2 has grossed $164.3 million since its opening weekend. The two films provided virtually identical openings. The Winter Soldier bested Guardians by only $700,000, which is absolutely insane if you think about it. One is a sequel to an Avengers property. The other is an unknown set of characters set in a backdrop no different from John Carter or Green Lantern. Seriously, how did this happen?

Anyway, Guardians of the Galaxy will have a couple more weeks of summer weekdays to inflate its domestic revenue. We should know in another 20 days or so whether it has a real chance to finish in first place. If so, that Daily Box Office comment I made a few weeks ago about no film from the summer becoming the best performer of the year has been rendered null and void. To a larger point, anybody who tried to tell you a few months ago that Guardians of the Galaxy would perform better than the fourth Transformers film is a total nutter. They also happen to be right. This has been a fascinating week for box office.


Daily Box Office for August 4, 2014
Rank
Film
Distributor
Daily Gross (in $)
Total Gross (in $)
1 Guardians of the Galaxy Disney 11.7 106.0
2 Lucy Universal 2.3 81.9
3 Hercules Paramount 1.4 54.1
4 Get On Up Universal 1.2 14.8
5 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox 1.1 190.5
6 The Purge: Anarchy Universal 0.8 64.1
7 Planes: Fire and Rescue Disney 0.8 48.0
8 Sex Tape Sony 0.5 34.4
9 And So It Goes Clarius Entertainment 0.4 10.8
10 Transformers: Age of Extinction Paramount 0.3 241.5

     


 
 

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