Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

July 15, 2014

We're tired of bananas!

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There is finally new blood worthy of discussion at the daily box office this week. After a disastrous July 4th holiday weekend wherein three out of four films failed to earn at least $10 million, a new entrant usurped Transformers: Age of Extinction as the dominant movie in release. Well, it did in North America. As you should know from reading Edwin Davies’ excellent international box office column, Over There, China still loves Transformium. Still, let us not sour the mood by focusing on their poor cinematic sensibilities.

The number one movie in North America for the fourth consecutive day is Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. In the process, it ended the two weeks of dominance demonstrated by Transformers 4. The latest Planet of the Apes flick grossed $8.2 million on Monday, raising its current domestic total to $80.8 million. I would also add that despite some dire projections, the monkey movie’s $73 million estimate was only slightly above the $72.6 million actual weekend total. There were a lot of skeptics who believed that the World Cup final with its 26.5 million viewers would create a Super Bowl-like Sunday impact. In such a scenario, everything in release would have taken a huge hit that day. Fortunately, any impact was negligible, enabling Dawn of the Planet of the Apes to continue to perform very well.

How strong a hold did the number one movie have on Monday? Its Sunday-to-Monday decline is 58%, meaning it held 42% of its weekend business on its first weekday. That is right in line with Age of Extinction, which managed 41%, albeit with a much larger number of $10.5 million. It is similar to last week’s Tammy, which had a 43% hold. Some other comparisons to provide frame of reference are How to Train Your Dragon (37% retention), Edge of Tomorrow (41% retention), Think Like a Man Too (37% retention) and 22 Jump Street (52% retention). Relative to scale, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes had a solid first weekday. We will evaluate it more over the next pair of columns, of course, but my belief as of this moment is that it will be less front-loaded than some of the other blockbusters released this summer. To a larger point, the entire summer to date should provide a cautionary tale regarding the seminal important of quality in determining a movie’s domestic take, especially after opening weekend.




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Reinforcing the point above is the second place movie in North America yesterday, Transformers: Age of Extinction. It fell to $2 million on Monday. That box office take indicates a 58% Monday-to-Monday drop on the heels of a 56% weekend drop that was even worse than indicated due to holiday deflation the previous weekend. In the Weekend Wrap-Up I wrote on Sunday (feel better, John Hamann!), I noted the dramatic gap between prior Transformers movies and the current one after 17 days in theaters. Today, I want to make a different point.

Yesterday was the 18th day of release for Transformers 4. It is already earning only $2 million. Transformers did not fall that low in terms of domestic box office until its 28th day in theaters, a full 11 days later than Age of Extinction. It had earned $286.2 million by that point. Revenge of the Fallen did not do so until its 27th day, by which point it had already grossed $365.6 million. Dark of the Moon also did not fall so low until its 27th day; its total domestic take was $327.4 million by that point. The point here is simple. Transformers: Age of Extinction is not only well behind the pace of its predecessors but it is also dwindling so rapidly that it has no chance of recovery.


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