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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 5, 2014

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Transformers: Age of Extinction

For the first time this summer, we’ll have a repeat film atop the box office. Trans4mers earned $10.6 million on Friday, which is a 74.6% decline from last Friday. That number isn’t terribly shocking given July 4th is one of a few anti-box office holidays. Barbecues and fireworks are still cooler than movies. That said, any losses from the holiday falling on a Friday are cancelled out by an impressive Saturday. For just about everything in the top ten, Friday will be the weakest day of the weekend. This will keep Age of Extinction on top for a second weekend, the first time that’s happened since Captain America: The Winter Solider in April. A $37.1 million weekend is more than enough to win a disappointing holiday weekend at the box office.

Tammy

As predicted by many, after an outstanding 2013, Melissa McCarthy’s box office hot streak comes to a screeching halt with Tammy. Starting on Wednesday with $6.2 million, the comedy dropped to $5.5 million on Thursday and rebounded to $6.4 million on Friday. While not an epic disaster, as it will have earned its production budget back after Saturday, a movie positioned as a contender to Transformers going into the weekend will not come close, as audiences who saw the trailer and commercials smelled a stinker from a mile away. After the huge successes of Identity Thief and The Heat, Tammy will not join those in the $100 million club. Like everything else in release, it will enjoy a Saturday bump after the deflated Friday, so it’s looking at a weekend of $22.4 million and $34.1 million in five days of release. In and of itself, this is fine, but when compared to expectations and past performances, it’s something Melissa McCarthy probably won’t want to talk about much going forward.




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Earth to Echo

Counter-programming attempt Earth to Echo comes in with a modest $2.6 million on Friday, virtually identical to its grosses on Wednesday and Thursday. Liberally borrowing plot elements from E.T., the family film is just simply lost in the shuffle and will not be a be a notable box office factor beyond this weekend. It will break the $2.6 million trend it’s shown so far on Saturday, so it’s good for a weekend of $8.8 million with a total $13.8 million over five days.

Deliver Us From Evil

Also looking for box office scraps is horror entry Deliver Us From Evil, which earned $2.5 million on Friday after starting with $2.8 million on Wednesday and $2.6 million on Thursday. Yes, it had a decline from Thursday to Friday. Nothing else in the top ten did. That tells you everything you need to know about its box office future. Give it a weekend of $8.2 million and $13.8 over five days.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Transformers: Age of Extinction 37.1
2 Tammy 22.4
3 How to Train Your Dragon 2 10.3
4 22 Jump Street 9.0
5 Earth to Echo 8.8
6 Deliver Us From Evil 8.2
7 Maleficent 6.8
8 Jersey Boys 6.5
9 Think Like A Man Too 4.3
10 Edge of Tomorrow 3.7

     


 
 

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