Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

July 2, 2014

For robots that claim to love the Earth, they sure do a lot of damage.

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Transformers: Age of Extinction received a smidge of competition yesterday. None of it came from films officially in release, though. One of the movies debuting today started playing last night, and that title even has a chance to unseat the latest Transformers movie today. Perhaps I am getting ahead of myself.

Tuesday, the number one film in North America remained Transformers: Age of Extinction. The box office titan of the moment experienced virtually no decline from Monday. If you do not believe me, simply look at the precise numbers. Its first weekday featured $10,504,274 worth of domestic revenue. Yesterday, that number “fell” to $10,410,443, a difference of less than $100,000. Some would argue that these are suspiciously similar numbers, ones that would reinforce the notion that its $100,038,390 weekend was exaggerated in order to broach the $100 million mark. Now, the weekday numbers are lower because they are being underreported in order to compensate. Enjoy your reasonable conspiracy theory, folks.

The bigger story with Transformers 4 is that its North American box office has officially been surpassed by China. I envision this turn of events as the early warning signal of the eventual changing of the guard between North American and Chinese box office. All that country needs is more viable theaters in order to become the de facto box office behemoth of the world. The oft-stated concerns about one to one comparisons involving Chinese revenue still remain.


No matter where you stand, the interesting aspect of yesterday’s box office involved the films not technically in release yet. The most important one with regards to box office is Tammy, the Melissa McCarthy film I project to finish in second place this weekend. It earned $1.3 million from late night previews. That modest amount does not in any way impact its perception, whether you believe it will excel, bomb or fall somewhere in the middle.

I would note that this tally would have been good enough for fifth place without the benefit of a full day of exhibitions. The five day winning streak of Transformers 4 could conceivably come to an end today. If such an event were to occur, I would consider it an upset, which is my way of saying I believe that such expectations are ambitious. A few people I trust see Tammy as a viable day one winner, though. Nobody seems to consider the film a threat to win the weekend, as Age of Extinction should carry the day by at least $15 million…unless North America sobers up quickly. Come on, folks. Pleasantly surprise me!

The rest of the top five is comprised of the usual suspects. How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street continue their daily battle. On Tuesday, the DreamWorks Animation title emerged victorious with $2.6 million while its more heralded adversary managed $2.3 million. The dragon flick can win all the battles it wants, but the buddy comedy is well ahead in the war. 22 Jump Street has a running total of $145 million, well ahead of its counterpart’s $126.8 million.

Finishing in fourth place was Maleficent as it earned $1.6 million yesterday, which was the smaller story. The larger one is that it crossed $600 million worldwide. It’s a bona fide blockbuster. There was actually a race for fifth as Jersey Boys unsuccessfully attempted to surpass Think Like a Man Too. The group comedy held tightly to its spot in the top five with another $1.2 million. Jersey Boys is knocking at its door with $1.1 million. This battle will be for a much lower spot in the top ten starting with tomorrow’s column.

Daily Box Office for July 1, 2014
Daily Gross
% Change
Total Gross
Transformers: Age of Extinction Paramount $10,410,443 -1% $120,953,107
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox $2,614,015 +15% $126,839,947
22 Jump Street Sony $2,284,747 -6% $145,003,982
Maleficent Disney $1,574,353 +9% $205,025,903
Think Like a Man Too Sony $1,173,401 +4% $50,381,737
Jersey Boys Warner Bros. $1,135,183 +16% $29,561,103
The Fault in Our Stars Fox $1,045,171 +2% $111,944,607
Edge of Tomorrowq Warner Bros. $761,364 -2% $85,889,385
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox $540,462 -4% $224,517,107
Chef Open Road $212,822 -4% $19,848,915



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