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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 21, 2014

Dude, we're pretty sure that you're a robot. We saw that show.

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Think Like a Man Too

The comedy sequel Think Like a Man Too starts with $12.1 million, which is identical to the start Think Like a Man had back in April 2012. As a filmy excuse for a sequel that’s really just a cash grab, things actually could’ve been worse. Kevin Hart’s ascension as a legit box office draw and Pointless Sequel Syndrome appear to have canceled each other out when it came to this opening. Think Like a Man finished with a weekend of $33.6 million, a 2.77 weekend multiplier. Looking to other Kevin Hart movies, January’s Ride Along did a little better with a 2.88, but the best Too can probably hope for is to duplicate the original’s opening weekend. I think it’ll come up a little short. Give it a weekend of $32.7 million.

Jersey Boys

Making the leap from Broadway to the big screen, Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys took in only $4.6 million on Friday. Targeted at older audiences, something like this is heavily dependent on reviews and they weren’t very good. It should have a strong weekend as the primary viewer isn’t likely to head out on Friday night but it’s still looking at a somewhat forgettable performance. Look for $14.2 million for the weekend.




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22 Jump Street

Last weekend’s big winner in the battle of sequels drops 55% from its first Friday to $9.3 million. This is just fine, and it’ll likely surpass $100 million by the end of the day. It took 21 Jump Street, uh, 22 days to do that. It’s essentially a lock to also pass the first film’s $138 million final gross, so it’s another big win for everyone involved. A second weekend of $28.8 million is still quite strong.

How to Train Your Dragon 2

How to Train Your Dragon 2 drops 53% from last weekend to $7.7 million, where it remains ahead of the performance of the first film at $77.7 million after eight days of release, but just barely. The original had taken in $74.1 million at this point. Here’s where things start to look bad for DreamWorks. The Friday-to-Friday decline for How to Train Your Dragon was just 8%. This happened to be Easter weekend and its overall weekend drop ended up being 34%, but How to Train Your Dragon Too 2 will need a tremendous Saturday and Sunday performance to avoid falling behind the performance of the first entry. It should have a weekend of around $25.2 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Think Like a Man Too 32.7
2 22 Jump Street 28.8
3 How to Train Your Dragon 2 25.2
4 Jersey Boys 14.2
5 Maleficent 12.6
6 Edge of Tomorrow 10.8
7 The Fault In Our Stars 7.2
8 X-Men: Days of Future Past 6.4
9 Godzilla 2.0
10 A Million Ways to Die in the West 1.7

     


 
 

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