Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
June 21, 2014
Think Like a Man Too
The comedy sequel Think Like a Man Too starts with $12.1 million, which is identical to the start Think Like a Man had back in April 2012. As a filmy excuse for a sequel that’s really just a cash grab, things actually could’ve been worse. Kevin Hart’s ascension as a legit box office draw and Pointless Sequel Syndrome appear to have canceled each other out when it came to this opening. Think Like a Man finished with a weekend of $33.6 million, a 2.77 weekend multiplier. Looking to other Kevin Hart movies, January’s Ride Along did a little better with a 2.88, but the best Too can probably hope for is to duplicate the original’s opening weekend. I think it’ll come up a little short. Give it a weekend of $32.7 million.
Jersey Boys
Making the leap from Broadway to the big screen, Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys took in only $4.6 million on Friday. Targeted at older audiences, something like this is heavily dependent on reviews and they weren’t very good. It should have a strong weekend as the primary viewer isn’t likely to head out on Friday night but it’s still looking at a somewhat forgettable performance. Look for $14.2 million for the weekend.
22 Jump Street
Last weekend’s big winner in the battle of sequels drops 55% from its first Friday to $9.3 million. This is just fine, and it’ll likely surpass $100 million by the end of the day. It took 21 Jump Street, uh, 22 days to do that. It’s essentially a lock to also pass the first film’s $138 million final gross, so it’s another big win for everyone involved. A second weekend of $28.8 million is still quite strong.
How to Train Your Dragon 2
How to Train Your Dragon 2 drops 53% from last weekend to $7.7 million, where it remains ahead of the performance of the first film at $77.7 million after eight days of release, but just barely. The original had taken in $74.1 million at this point. Here’s where things start to look bad for DreamWorks. The Friday-to-Friday decline for How to Train Your Dragon was just 8%. This happened to be Easter weekend and its overall weekend drop ended up being 34%, but How to Train Your Dragon Too 2 will need a tremendous Saturday and Sunday performance to avoid falling behind the performance of the first entry. It should have a weekend of around $25.2 million.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
Think Like a Man Too
|
32.7
|
|
2
|
22 Jump Street
|
28.8
|
|
3
|
How to Train Your Dragon 2
|
25.2
|
|
4
|
Jersey Boys
|
14.2
|
|
5
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Maleficent
|
12.6
|
|
6
|
Edge of Tomorrow
|
10.8
|
|
7
|
The Fault In Our Stars
|
7.2
|
|
8
|
X-Men: Days of Future Past
|
6.4
|
|
9
|
Godzilla
|
2.0
|
|
10
|
A Million Ways to Die in the West
|
1.7
|
|
|
|
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