Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

June 19, 2014

Umm, director, did you just say you want me to run TOWARD the explosion?

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Sony’s 22 Jump Street has established dominance at the top of the domestic box office charts this week, and Wednesday was no exception. The latest Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum buddy comedy grossed another $5.8 million yesterday, easily enough to take first place for the fifth time in six days. And that is not even the good news.

22 Jump Street has now earned $77 million in North America plus another $20 million overseas. The $50 million production will have crossed the $100 million mark worldwide by the time you read this column. It is a bona fide blockbuster as well as a wildly profitable venture after less than a week in release. A sequel rarely surpasses the final domestic total of its predecessor. 22 Jump Street has a rock solid chance to be the exception to this rule, as it should surpass the $110 million mark by the close of business on Sunday. 21 Jump Street accrued $138.5 million during its entire domestic run. Also of note is the fact that the first film in the unlikeliest of franchises required two full weeks to earn $77 million. So, 22 Jump Street has more than doubled its pace.

In terms of daily box office behavior, the buddy cop movie performed as expected. It fell 21% from Tuesday’s $7.4 million to yesterday’s $5.8 million. In the process, it technically experienced the worst drop in the top ten in terms of percentage decline and actual dollar decline. Neither of those statements are surprising given the ordinary weekday box office behavior we have discussed. Since only one film in the top fell less than 13%, I would argue that 22 Jump Street actually exceeded expectations with its Tuesday-to-Wednesday holdover. Simply stated, there is nothing but good news about 22 Jump Street right now.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been quite a bit more puzzling. After an opening weekend that left box office analysts scratching their heads, the latest pet dragon project has grossed $15.7 million on its weekdays. Wednesday’s take of $5.8 million represents a 19% drop from Tuesday’s $5.9 million. I would not say I am troubled by what is tantamount to the same behavior as 22 Jump Street yesterday.


What does have me concerned is that after six days in release, How to Train Your Dragon 2 has accumulated $65.2 million in box office. It is only slightly ahead of its predecessor, which totaled $57.9 million during the same time span. How to Train Your Dragon 2 could feasibly fall behind the pace of the first film as soon as this weekend. I consider this a stunning turn of events for a sequel to such a beloved movie. DreamWorks Animation movies used to be virtually invincible at the box office. Now, they keep stumbling with even the safest of projects.

The rest of the top five yesterday stayed the same. Maleficent fell 16% to $2.4 million and has now grossed a whopping $170.5 million domestically. With another $275 million earned overseas, it is undeniably one of the biggest hits of 2014. In fact, it has surpassed The LEGO Movie to become the fourth most popular global release of the year. Godzilla will likely pass it soon, though.

The other two films in the top five are last weekend’s major releases, The Fault in Our Stars and Edge of Tomorrow. The John Green adaptation fell 15% to $2.2 million yesterday. It has earned $87.9 million domestically as well as a somewhat surprising $39 million overseas. Meanwhile, Edge of Tomorrow fell 18% to $1.7 million. It has a running total of $62.5 million domestically along with a more impressive $181 million internationally.

What I do find interesting about the two films is that after seven days in release, The Fault in Our Stars had grossed $66 million while the Tom Cruise flick was at $40.5 million, a difference of $25.5 million. Fast forward today and the difference in the films is $25.4 million. In other words, The Fault in Our Stars is running out of steam so quickly that Edge of Tomorrow is starting to (ever so slightly) close the gap. This is the latest signs of the heavy frontloading for the tearjerker.

Combined box office revenue for the top 10 yesterday was $19.3 million. That total reflects a 19% drop from Tuesday’s $23.7 million. Again, that is the standard pattern of behavior on weekdays. We started with $20.4 million for the top ten on Monday, gained 16% on Tuesday and are now back down on Wednesday. In terms of comparing Monday to Wednesday, the difference is a modest 5% or $1.1 million. That’s a decent holdover. Last week, Wednesday’s top ten of $16.2 million reflected an 8% fall from the Monday’s $17.6 million. That happened because the two new releases were more frontloaded than the ones this week. Hopefully, you are starting to understand the process through this information.



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