Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

June 11, 2014

Sadly, this photo finish was not for first place.

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Kim Hollis: Edge of Tomorrow opened to $28.8 million this weekend against a $178 million budget. It also grossed $82 million overseas, a whopping $25 million of which came from China. What are your thoughts on this result, as well as the continued mixed signals consumers give Tom Cruise films?

Edwin Davies: I'm disappointed and a little surprised by this result. The trailers and buzz suggested that Edge of Tomorrow had the potential to really break out, especially since it combined a novel, easily sellable premise with Cruise's still considerable name recognition. It seemed to suffer the same fate that Pacific Rim did last year, in that it was a film people online were much more excited about than actual consumers were. (Which is kind of ironic since it was suggested that, of the two openers, The Fault in our Stars might be the one being hyped too much online.) I guess people might have seen it as just a repeat of last year's Oblivion, which was already received indifferently. It's not an unsalvageable situation; Cruise is a huge draw overseas and the film could be a big hit in Japan since it's based on a Japanese novel, and the word-of-mouth might help it to hold well over the next few weeks, but it's pretty rare for the kind of legs it now needs to be profitable to materialize during summer. It might end up being something of a draw, or incur a slight loss, which is a huge disappointment for a film that's a) good and b) more or less original.

Matthew Huntley: Given how good the movie is (I saw it yesterday and it deserves its 89% positive rating on RT), this is a shame. I was hoping EOT would at least crack $30 million, but I think the good word is spreading with this one and I can see it displaying the same legs that Minority Report did way back in 2002, so I think $125-$130 million is still possible, if a little bullish. Either way, it's going to need A LOT of help from overseas to break even. Cruise is still a heavy hitter in my opinion, but studios may think twice before pouring nearly $200 million into one of his vehicles.




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Felix Quinonez: I find it very hard to find something positive to say about this result. A $29 million opening weekend is nowhere near good enough for a movie that cost almost $200 million to produce. (And that's even before you include what must have been a very expensive marketing campaign.) It will obviously do a lot better overseas but by now we all know that studios only recoup a portion of the overseas grosses. And judging by its B+ Cinemascore, I don't foresee this having a lot of staying power. At this point, I think the best the studio can hope for is that Edge of Tomorrow doesn't lose them too much money.

As for Tom Cruise, I think he's long past the point where audiences will see anything that he's in. And I don't think he'll ever return to his former status as a box office king. But, as MI4 proved, in the right role he can still carry a movie to box office success. I just don't think that Edge of Tomorrow falls into that category. I understand that it got great reviews and it might actually be a great movie that a whole lot of people would like or even love but first you have to get them to show up. And I believe that to a lot of people, myself included, the movie looks a little silly. Those battle armors might look cool in a cartoon or comic but seeing Tom Cruise in one of them just didn't work for me. And Emily Blunt, the action star? I don't know about that. But in the end I believe that movie itself has a limited appeal that was never going to attract mainstream audiences.


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