Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 18, 2014

Your height doesn't bother me now that you're much more rich and famous.

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Ride Along

The Ice Cube/Kevin Hart buddy comedy gives us another January surprise for the second week in a row. With a Friday estimate of $14.4 million, there’s another challenger for Cloverfield’s January opening record of $40 million set in 2008. It’s going to be close, but that record will probably hold, as Ride Along is likely somewhat front-loaded. Both Lone Survivor and now Ride Along will have had huge openings on consecutive weekends, though. Don’t you people realize that it’s January? Anyway, Kevin Hart finally gets his non-standup box office breakout with an outstanding weekend of $37.4 million.

Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit

The Tom Clancy character reboot starring Captain Kirk Chris Pine lands flat with just $5.3 million on Friday. With just one day of box office, any franchise potential has likely gone poof. Ouch. It’s in line for a weekend of $14.3 million, but nobody is going to be very pleased with this performance come Monday.

The Nut Job

The first animated feature of 2014, The Nut Job comes in with $4.8 million. This is okay given it has essentially become the only family option now that Frozen has run its course. Also in its favor is the fact that it’s Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, which means a better than expected Sunday. There’s a good chance it comes out ahead of Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit by the time the weekend estimates come in. I’ll predict a weekend of $15.8 million for The Nut Job, and that you’ll have completely forgotten about it by the time it’s out on DVD.


Devil's Due

The second of approximately 472 horror films to be released in 2014 (by the way, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is already out of the top ten), Devil’s Due comes in with $3.5 million on Friday. There is nothing else to say about this except that the standard horror film rules apply, which means a likely weekend of $8.6 million.

Lone Survivor

After last weekend’s huge opening, Mark Wahlberg’s Lone Survivor drops 54% to $6.6 million. That’s fairly standard and will still play well over the holiday weekend for an easy second place behind Ride Along. Give it another $19.4 million for the weekend.

Oscar Watch

For the relevant films in theaters after the Golden Globes were awarded and Oscar nominations went out, it’s a mixed bag. American Hustle, with three Golden Globe wins (including Best Musical or Comedy and 10 Oscar nominations is up 9% from last Friday to $2.8 million. Having crossed $100 million last weekend, there’s not a whole lot of box office life left in the David O. Russell film, but a nomination in every major Oscar category certainly doesn’t hurt its chances. Look for a weekend of around $9 million.

Meanwhile, despite five nominations, including Best Picture, Spike Jonze’s Her fell 36% to $1.1 million. Likely just straight up too weird for mainstream audiences, it’s looking for a weekend of $3.3 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Ride Along 37.4
2 Lone Survivor 19.4
3 The Nut Job 15.8
4 Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit 14.3
5 Frozen 11.8
6 American Hustle 9.0
7 Devil's Due 8.6
8 August: Osage County 6.8
9 The Wolf of Wall Street 6.5
10 Her 3.4



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