Friday Box Office Analysis

by Tim Briody

December 7, 2013

Katniss Everdeen will you do me the honor of...

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The traditional post-Thanksgiving hangover is here, with everything down massively from a week ago and the one new release flopping.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

After a record breaking Thanksgiving weekend, Catching Fire falls 75.6% to $7.7 million. This brings it to $317 million and $400 million is still a possibility, although the path there got a little bit tougher thanks to the size of the drop. The good news is that it for once should see an increase in business on Saturday, which means it’s in line for around a $24.6 million weekend.




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Frozen

Also seeing a huge collapse is Frozen, down a similar 74.6% from last Friday to $6.8 million. Catching Fire’s drop suddenly makes things interesting. While I’m anticipating a decent remainder of the weekend for The Hunger Games sequel, there is now a very good chance that Frozen takes over the top spot by the time the weekend estimates roll in. Because it's animated and family-friendly, Frozen is going to have a considerably better weekend multiplier than Catching Fire, which means needs a 3.6 multiplier for the weekend to pass it. They're going to be very, very close, but I'm going to give the edge to Frozen, but not by much. Frozen should have a second weekend of $25 million.

Out of the Furnace

The only new release on one of the worst box office weekends of the year, Out of the Furnace confirms the self-fulfilling prophecy by only earning $1.9 million on Friday. Look for about $5.3 million as it vanishes quickly in the wake of next weekend’s bigger releases.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Frozen 25.0
2 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 24.6
3 Out of the Furnace 5.3
4 Thor: The Dark World 4.5
5 Delivery Man 3.4
6 Homefront 2.6
7 The Best Man Holiday 2.6
8 The Book Thief 1.9
9 Philomena 1.6
10 Dallas Buyers Club 1.1

     


 
 

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