Friday Box Office Analysis

by Tim Briody

June 22, 2013

It's not a party until someone ends up with a lampshade on their head.

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Monsters University

The Pixar prequel earned a solid $29.6 million on Friday, which is a great start. Looking at some recent Pixar releases, last year's original IP Brave started with $24.6 million on Friday and a $66.3 million weekend, while 2011 sequel Cars 2 opened with $25.7 million and $66.1 million for the weekend. In fact, this is the highest opening day among Pixar films that are not called Toy Story 3. You might notice the weekend multipliers for Brave and Cars 2 weren't all that great, because as we've mentioned in the past, the Pixar brand name is so strong there's enough of a Friday rush factor that counteracts the traditional stronger weekend animated films typically have (witness The Croods 3.74 opening weekend multiplier and last month's already forgotten Epic with a 3.58.)

Monsters University will also land in the typical Pixar multiplier wheelhouse, though with its bigger start on Friday, it will have one of the stronger opening weekends in Pixar's history (again, save Toy Story 3, which kind of blows the curve). Also working in Mike and Sully's favor is the lack of family entertainment in the last couple months, which allowed The Croods to earn $183 million while uncontested and Epic to quietly cross $100 million today despite minimal fanfare. With schools out, there was demand and Monsters University is coming along at the right time. Look for a weekend of $77 million.


World War Z

Brad Pitt's zombie thriller is close behind Monsters University with $24.7 million on Friday. This is well ahead of a lot of estimates, showing the star power of... zombies. Oh, and maybe that Brad Pitt guy too. The popularity of The Walking Dead (and zombies in general), a Super Bowl commercial and being a well-known book (if a questionable film adaptation) are all helping it's box office total. Maybe this is finally the tipping point for zombies (and hey, it's better than sparkly vampires), but not before World War Z finishes with a $61.7 million weekend.

Man of Steel

After last weekend's huge opening, Man of Steel collapses 69% from last Friday to $12.4 million. Heavily front loaded, Superman will cross $200 million by the end of the weekend but it's going to be all downhill from here. A second weekend of about $36 million is decent but the wheels are about to come off in terms of total box office relative to opening weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Monsters University 77.0
2 World War Z 61.7
3 Man of Steel 35.9
4 This is the End 12.8
5 Now You See Me 7.9
6 Fast and Furious 6 4.7
7 Star Trek Into Darkness 3.6
8 The Purge 3.3
9 The Internship 3.3
10 Iron Man 3 2.7



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