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Weekend Forecast for June 14-16, 2013

By Reagen Sulewski

June 13, 2013

Superman loves lens flare.

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The Wednesday opening is usually a terrible idea for films – unless you're trying to build word of mouth. Such is the tactic that This Is The End is taking, one of the approximately 476 apocalypse-themed comedies coming out this year. This one's almost a meta example of the genre, with Seth Rogen, Jay Baruchel, James Franco, Jonah Hill, Craig Robinson and Danny McBride playing themselves – or more correctly, exaggerated versions of the public personas, holing up in Franco's gigantic new mansion after the Rapture strikes. Part Jay and Silent Bob, part Harold and Kumar, and part Shaun of the Dead, this sees the relationships among the six slowly deteriorate as they get on each other's nerves in the confined space, and as L.A. Burns around them.

The film is filled to the brim with Hollywood in-jokes (and gets set in motion at a party filled with cameoing celebs eagerly puncturing their typecasting), and also an “anything goes” mentality, where co-directors Rogen and Evan Goldberg famously got everyone in the cast but Franco to tap out on a scene (do you know what this means? Danny McBride has a line. I know, I'm shocked too). It's this angle and the very-very-very R-rated level of comedy that's the appeal, and it should play very well. Already with about $8 million in the bank from Wednesday opening, this should openly solidly to $33 million, and could have a Hangover-type run.

So... The Purge. Yeah, I blew that one. But then, again so did just about everyone else, as the clearly-laid out home invasion premise really resonated with audiences, to the tune of $34 million. It's clear that we missed that was really being perceived as a horror film, and it's that audience that pushed it over the top. That's a pretty fickle audience, however, and it should follow up that first weekend with a steep drop to a $15 million second frame.




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Now You See Me showed a decent amount of legs in its second weekend by dropping to just $19 million – such are standards that a twisty film that doesn't completely fall apart in the end is viewed as a positive. The final total on this one is still up in the air a bit, but as much as $150 million isn't out of range. It should bring in about $14 million this frame.

By the time you read this, Fast and Furious 6 will be the highest grossing film in the series, with around $210 million domestic, passing by Fast Five, and will still have a significant amount left to run. This most unlikeliest of franchises is well on track for its seventh outing and you can either deal with that or go hide in a shack in Montana. Give it $10 million more for this weekend.

The Internship's $17 million isn't that bad, all things considered, with one of those things being that it looks completely terrible. Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson are floundering a bit, but that this film wasn't a total flop shows that their names still have a bit of punch. They just have to find a project that's not horribly dated. It should fall to around $9 million this weekend.

Further down the charts, we have Epic inching towards $100 million, an underwhelming figure for a summer family film, with around $7 million, Star Trek Into Darkness with about the same, and After Earth limping in with $5 million.


Forecast: Weekend of June 14-16, 2013
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Man of Steel 4,207 New 92.1
2 This is the End 3,055 New 32.1
3 The Purge 2,590 +54 15.6
4 Now You See Me 2,082 +62 13.7
5 Fast and Furious 6 3,370 -401 13.1
6 The Internship 3,399 +33 9.2
7 Epic 3,151 -443 7.6
8 Star Trek Into Darkness 2,331 -821 7.1
9 After Earth 2,432 -969 5.0
10 The Hangover Part III 1,901 -1,341 3.6

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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