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It’s the last week of Survivor already! Not that this season hasn’t dragged on for longer than the hockey season already, but I thought we had an extra week to go given that we still have six castaways left and presumably only three of them will be around at the bitter end. So only five short days to go until I can forget all of the “fans” and almost all of the “favorites”. Just like they were before the season started!

Here is how I rate the remaining castaways’ chances of winning the million dollar check and the title of Ultimate Survivor:

6. Sherri

I’ve put Sherri as least likely to win – behind even Eddie! – because while I think it’s likely she’ll be taken to the end, I don’t think she’ll win a single vote.

On paper, Sherri doesn’t have a bad story to tell. She put together the dominant “fan” alliance, which ran the show over Reynold and Eddie’s objections. She was probably the one “fan” who knew anything about Survivor. After the merge, she was outnumbered and had to switch up strategies. She joined the dominant alliance, and worked her way up with people like Phillip until she became part of the decision-making group. And she’s there at the very end. That’s what being a Survivor is all about.

But it’s not a story that’s going to sell well to a jury. Reynold and Eddie see themselves as underdog heroes, and aren’t going to vote for their version of the wicked witch figure. However dysfunctional the Stealth R Us alliance was inside, the favorites all committed to a group strategy where a “favorite” would get the win.

The only person on the jury who could conceivably vote for Sherri is Michael, and he seems like the kind of guy who’d vote for the best player. Would Michael think that is Sherri, the person who led her alliance to several consecutive immunity losses and then didn’t vote with him when his alliance made a move? Highly doubtful.

5. Eddie

Eddie is an easy target for the next vote. He is the last of the Three Amigos, and even if he is the Martin Short of the bunch, the former Stealthers would be worried that he would win votes from Malcolm, Reynold, Michael and maybe even Andrea. Even three votes for Eddie could be enough to win. I personally think this is unlikely, because everyone knows Eddie is a complete boofhead and no-one really respects his game. I mean, a vote from Reynold’s a given, but we haven’t seen Eddie give an original thought all season. Do we really see players like Malcolm and Andrea voting for Eddie when all his answers will be based on what Probst said at the last Tribal Council?

But before we get there, Eddie’s an easy target who everyone else can agree to vote off well before we get to the pointy end of the game. Eddie needs a challenge romp to make it to the end. Unfortunately for Eddie, the last immunity challenge is always about mind-over-matter.

4. Erik

Erik’s “last minute, go with my gut, ignore that my gut has crap for brains” decision making process has gotten him this far in the game. In his mind, Erik has played a swing vote, under-the-radar strategy. The problem for Erik is that no one aside from him is thinking he’s playing that way. They all dismiss him as the “ice cream scoop guy who gave away his idol” who doesn’t talk strategy with anyone. The most repeated phrase this season wasn’t “Phillip’s tiresome and delusonal” or “Brandon is a nutbar, there’s just no way around it.” It was “this is a clutch vote and I can’t believe I’m trusting Erik, of all people.”

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