Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

November 21, 2012

America's Most Wanted.

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Edwin Davies: Well, I for one had no idea that there was this much pent up demand for a prequel to W.

This is towards the higher end of what I was expecting for this weekend. I thought it would wind up somewhere in the mid to high teens based largely on the fact that this seemed like it was going to be a pretty hectic weekend, and it was more likely to get squeezed out as a result. However, the strength of the film in the face of both Twilight and Skyfall, which are much flashier, suggests that the strong reviews and word-of-mouth are convincing people that it isn't just a dry history lesson and is worth seeking it out. The Spielberg name obviously has a huge cache when it comes to American audiences, and when it is coupled with such fascinating, near-mythic subject matter as Lincoln, people are going to be interested. If it expands over the next few weeks - which it has plenty of room to do since it was in relatively few screens for a wide release - then I think we're going to see a very strong run, followed by a considerable amount of awards attention.

Felix Quinonez: I'm very excited about this opening. I'm a huge Spielberg fan and I'm always rooting for him. But I also see this as a win for smart thoughtful movies. Not only that but I think the fact that it overperformed will help it gain some more attention which will help it attract more audiences and hopefully attention come Oscars time.




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Matthew Huntley: This is more or less in line with expectations, especially after coming off a huge weekend in limited release. But I'm not sure how much appeal this film will have over the next couple months. I saw it tonight and while it's good, it's also dry in parts. For every fine performance, there's a grandiose speech, and the score is hokey to the point of getting on your nevers. It will probably show strong legs simply because of its older-skewing audience, but I don't think its numbers will be all that big. I'm predicting $80-$90 million overall.

Kim Hollis: I think this will continue to hold up well, primarily on the strength of very positive reviews, not to mention the fact that people are simply fascinated by Abraham Lincoln. It's also the kind of movie that will engage an older demographic, and it can sometimes take several weeks for them to get to the theater. Since I'm pretty confident this is going to have plenty of awards attention, the momentum should be sustained through the holiday season.

David Mumpower: I guess I am more impressed by this result than the rest of you. Last December, Spielberg released a pair of movies I considered to be much more commercial, The Adventures of Tintin and War Horse. While comparing opening weekends would be inappropriate, neither of those titles reached $80 million. Based on Thanksgiving trending as well as awards contention, Lincoln has a solid shot at clearing $100 million. I had expected a Munich performance ($47.4 million). If we look at this analytically, Spielberg's commercial movies such as Minority Report, Catch Me If You Can, War of the Worlds and Indiana Jones and the Refrigerator of Nuclear Repelling reach $100 million. His less conventional features such as The Terminal, AI and Amistad do not. Even Schindler's List fell short of $100 million. A presidential biopic seems like an unlikely box office blockbuster yet Lincoln is performing brilliantly.


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