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The other new release, The Campaign, finished in second place with $3,141,082. This is a noteworthy performance given the above. If The Bourne Legacy does flame out, something this Bourne fan hopes does not happen, The Campaign could feasibly become the number one film in North America by Thursday. A lot depends on what happens tomorrow. For the moment, the Will Ferrell/Zach Galifianakis frenemy comedy has earned $29,729,542.

In case you are wondering about its metrics, its Saturday-Sunday decline was 27% while its Sunday-Monday depreciation was 54%. So, it has lost 67% of its audience since Saturday as well. Sometimes I feel like the last triumphant movie release was The Avengers. Most of the noteworthy summer films fall squarely in the good but not great category with the rest entering the total disaster range.

In case you are wondering whether The Dark Knight Rises may yet return to first place, the answer is probably not. The third place entrant yesterday earned $2,344,003. It should be in the $1.8 million range by Thursday. The Bourne Legacy would have to lose over 50% of its revenue over the next three days; Total Recall did 50% of the same situation. And even if The Bourne Legacy does drop that much, The Campaign would have to lose 42% of its audience over the next three days as well.

Instead, what we are anticipating with The Dark Knight Rises is its next milestone. With current box office of $391,932,219 after 25 days in theaters, the latest Batman movie should cross $400 million on its 29th day in theaters. That would be Friday. In the process, The Dark Knight Rises will become the fourth fastest movie to $400 million. The Dark Knight required only 18 days in achieving the same milestone.

I do not expect The Dark Knight Rises to reach $450 million based upon its current trajectory. The only caveat to this is that the movie has demonstrated slightly more life than anticipated based on its first 14 days of revenue. If The Olympics had a moderate impact in addition to the Aurora tragedy, it could hold on a bit longer than normal for a film performing at this scale.

I previously mentioned the model of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, a title I did not feel was a perfect fit for various reasons. The Dark Knight Rises has fallen behind the pace of that film, earning only 92% of its fourth weekend revenue of $20.6 million. Batman 7’s day 25 total is only 90% of Dead Man’s Chest’s $2,603,407. Given that the Johnny Depp movie earned roughly $62 million after day 25 and that movies die more quickly now than they did in 2006, another $50 million is about the best I foresee The Dark Knight Rises earning during the rest of its domestic run. That would be final box office in the $440 million range, which would be enough for the seventh best domestic earner of all time. Ninth best and a total in the $425 million range is the absolute worst case scenario now and I find that projection too pessimistic.

Combined revenue for the top ten yesterday was $14.9 million. This is a modest increase of 5.6% from Thursday’s gruesome $14.1 million. You can read between the lines and anticipate what the rest of the box office week will entail. Also, I cannot speak for the other parts of the country, but school is back in session here. So the summer box office money train has come to a full stop.

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