Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
August 7, 2012
Instead, let’s focus on the positives. The Dark Knight Rises is now $6 million above the expected estimate I had mentioned three times recently. This is despite the fact that its weekdays were a million under projections. In other words, weekends are allowing The Dark Knight Rises to overcome its lackluster weekdays thus far, at least somewhat. I could even point to an extreme example wherein The Dark Knight Rises could feasibly reach $450 million or more.
While I do not recommend using comparisons as old as 2006, I would point out that The Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest fits in terms of actual dollars with $62.3 million in its second weekend and $35.2 million in its third weekend. The numbers for The Dark Knight Rises are $62.1 million and $35.7 million. Over their first four weekdays, Dead Man’s Chest accrued $60.4 million while The Dark Knight Rises earned $64.1 million. In their second set of weekdays, Pirates managed $28.3 million while The Dark Knight Rises bested it with $31.1 million. I am sure you are questioning how good a comparison this could be, and I understand. This is why I have dismissed it thus far. The weekends match well but the weekdays do not.
Here is what I still want to demonstrate. After its $35.2 million third weekend, The Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest had earned $321.9 million. Its final domestic take was $423.3 million, $101.4 million more. If The Dark Knight Rises could maintain similar momentum, a $454 million domestic run is still feasible. Given that Dead Man’s Chest earned $4.3 million on its 18th day, $400,000 less than The Dark Knight Rises, we can officially move Nolan’s final Batman movie off the worst case scenario charts.
The Dark Knight Rises will beat The Hunger Games and should manage $425 million, give or take a bit. Its $4.7 million yesterday is down only 42% from last Monday. With another $13.3 million from today until Thursday, The Dark Knight Rises should be around $370 million then and $390 million by Sunday, assuming it continues to mirror the weekend performance of Dead Man’s Chest. Given the early box office data, this is an impressive turn of events. Consumers have overcome their fear and returned to theaters.
With regards to the new titles, Total Recall accumulated $3,002,968 in box office revenue yesterday. Its grand total is now $28,580,726. Given the terrifying negative cost reports for this one ($200 million according to some), its international performance will need to be staggering to justify this financial outlay.
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days managed $1,977,307 while claiming the second lowest Sunday-to-Monday drop in the top ten. As I mentioned in Monday Morning Quarterback, I do not understand the wisdom of releasing this title in August rather than June as its weekdays should have been like this for two months now. What’s clear is that the third Wimpy Kid movie’s current total of $16,600,906 is disappointing relative to the first two titles in the franchise thus far. We will have to wait and see whether Fox moves forward with a fourth title now.
Combined revenue for the top ten yesterday was $15.1 million. This is almost a draw with last Thursday’s $15.2 million. We are well short of last Monday’s $16.6 million and that trend will continue this week. Fortunately, a pair of (hopefully) strong performers is on the horizon on Friday with the debut of The Bourne Legacy and The Campaign. Either tomorrow or Thursday, I plan to compare weekday totals for the summer thus far.