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Weekend Forecast for August 3-5, 2012

By Reagen Sulewski

August 3, 2012

Oh, so *this* is what it's like to be in a Len Wiseman movie.

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Perhaps hitting the nail a little on the head with the title, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days makes its debut this Friday as well. The third film based on the Wimpy Kid series of tween novels, it's something something summer vacation wacky adventures indeed. The first two films in this series have been remarkably consistent in opening to the low 20s despite generally terrible reviews, which is a bit of a testament to knowing your audience and/or pushing out the base minimum of an acceptable product. The other two films were released in March, which could make for an interesting case study about whether that time was crucial to their success, but in all probability, the fact that kids are out of school right now will have exactly the same effect as the spring break release date. The biggest danger for kids' films series is always having your audience outgrow you, but it's my understanding that the series is still pretty popular, and new readers are still finding it, replacing the ones who are now teenagers. Let's throw in a little series fatigue and make it about $19 million for the weekend.

While The Dark Knight Rises is still probably the favorite to win the weekend, it's not clear cut thanks to that slightly alarming 61% drop last weekend. While most mega-blockbusters do have pretty large falloffs thanks to midnight showings and the Friday Night Rush Factor, that's quite a bit more than The Dark Knight and many of these films in general. Of course, $300 million in 12 days is nothing to complain about, and it wouldn't be totally impossible for it to get to $500 million domestic in the final analysis (although that's definitely on the higher end of possibilities). The film would need to start this weekend with a drop of less than half its $62 million from last weekend, but I think that's right about the line it'll hit, with $31 million.




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Ice Age: Continental Drift will rather plainly be the lowest grossing film in that franchise to date, though it's a bit like being the shortest person on the Olympic volleyball team – you're still pretty tall. It's a little behind pace of the first film, which grossed $176 million total, which puts this one on pace for about $150 million. However, as mentioned many times, this remains a bizarrely popular series in international territories, with almost $500 million in earnings outside North America. An increasingly irrelevant $8 million should be the take here this weekend.

Last week's new films will struggle for relevancy as well. The Watch and Step Up: Revolution both landed with a thud in the $11-12 million range, squandering star power and a popular franchise brand respectively. Unfunny comedies are the saddest of all film groups, with extremely specific niche films perhaps in a close second. The Watch should grab a little over $5 million, while Step Up may end up just below that mark.


Forecast: Weekend of August 3-5, 2012
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Dark Knight Rises 4,242 -162 31.2
2 Total Recall 3,601 New 28.4
3 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 3,392 New 18.7
4 Ice Age: Continental Drift 3,543 -326 8.6
5 The Watch 3,168 0 5.4
6 Step Up: Revolution 2,606 +39 4.9
7 Ted 2,761 -368 4.9
8 The Amazing Spider-Man 2,425 -735 3.9
9 Brave 2,110 -441 3.1
10 Magic Mike 1,202 -873 1.9

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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