Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 31, 2012
What we know before we evaluate Monday’s box office is that The Dark Knight Rises fell 52% from Sunday to Monday last week. Also, The Dark Knight fell 56% on its second Monday from its second Sunday. In other words, we can safely range the expected performance for day 11 of The Dark Knight Rises between $8.6 million and $9.4 million. Anything lower than $8.6 million is a disappointment while anything higher than $9.4 million is a positive sign moving forward. $9 million is the line of demarcation for an expected performance.
Last Friday, I projected that The Dark Knight Rises would earn $32 million from Monday to Thursday this week. The only assumption for this total was that the film would fall 50% from last week’s Monday-Thursday earnings of $64.1 million. In order to reach that amount, Batman 7 would need to earn $8 million a day with more than average on Monday and Tuesday, less than average on Wednesday and Thursday. Again, this is the normal pattern of weekday behavior for titles in release. Thursday’s total should be only about 80% of Monday’s revenue, give or take a bit. These are the numbers we will track over the next four days of columns.
Alas, The Dark Knight Rises earned only $8,160,046 on Monday, a 58% decline from Sunday. The film is now unlikely to reach $32 million for this batch of weekdays, because its Wednesday/Thursday performance should be around $13 million. $30 million for Monday-Thursday is more likely now as once again The Dark Knight Rises fails to meet even the most reasonable of expectations. While the movie will cross $300 million on its 12th day of release, it should only be around $317 million through Thursday and just short of $350 million after Sunday, probably $348 million (although I expect Warner Bros. to say $350 million). There simply is not any box office momentum right now.
BOP’s Tim Briody and John Hamann both referenced some calculations I performed last Saturday. The gist of them is simple. If The Dark Knight Rises continues to decline 50% or so from this point forward on weekdays as well as weekends, we would be discussing a 24-day total of $378 million or so. The 31-day first month of revenue would be $393 million. Around day 38, the movie should cross $400 million. And that’s about all The Dark Knight Rises would earn.
There is obviously still a lot of play in these calculations, but I currently have a difficult time finding a scenario where the movie earns north of $425 million. Less than $405 million is still a distinct possibility if the rate of decay grows worse from here. In that scenario, The Hunger Games would earn more than The Dark Knight Rises, meaning Nolan’s final Batman film is at best the third largest domestic release of the year. With The Hobbit looming in December, The Dark Knight Rises could feasibly slip to fourth. This is a shocking turn of events, albeit because of a series of misfortunes totally beyond the control of Warner Bros.
Combined box office revenue for the top ten yesterday was $16.6 million. The top ten is down 27% from Thursday’s $22.7 million. This will be a slooooow box office week.