Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 25, 2012
We all know the rules about such sequels by now. The quality of a movie directly correlates to the opening weekend of its successor. The Dark Knight is as beloved as any title in the 2000s. While I am not as big a fan as others here are (again, I prefer Batman Begins and Iron Man), I still consider it to be the most triumphant project of the 2000s in terms of box office, quality and lingering impact. The stage was set for The Dark Knight Rises to dominate the competition. It should have opened well in excess of The Dark Knight and demonstrated a scalding first week pace.
Instead, The Dark Knight Rises has fallen short of The Dark Knight on four consecutive days. Also, if we remove midnight revenue from the equation, the 2008 release also did better on the actual Friday as well. Yes, there is an explanation for this and a heart-breaking one at that. We have to accept the events of Aurora as a part of the conversation moving forward, perhaps even a cornerstone. There is no means through which consumers can distinguish The Dark Knight Rises from a shooting at an exhibition of The Dark Knight Rises. So, there is reason for potential customers to wait an appropriate time to see the movie in theaters. This is the problem Warner Bros. faces from this point forward.
You are probably aware of the impending debut of The Olympics. This will be a key portion of the Daily Box Office Analysis over the next couple of weeks. The question of how much this event impacts movie attendance impacts box office is an inevitable topic. The answer is yes with the more interesting discussion being how much. In other words, box office revenue will hurt by a global event of tremendous intrigue. This event begins during the second weekend of The Dark Knight Rises (technically, it started this morning as my TiVos already recorded a lot of soccer). Yes, on the heels of a tragedy that impacted its first weekend in release, it faces a second hurdle in its second weekend, albeit a much happier one. In short, I am struggling to identify ways that The Dark Knight Rises can regain momentum.
The hope would be that some of the consumers who were unwilling to watch The Dark Knight Rises on opening weekend will feel more comfortable after a few days. The news coverage eventually will move away from the recent catastrophe in Aurora to the more uplifting story of The Olympics. At this point, perhaps consumers will differentiate the latest Batman film from the actions of a monster. In terms of box office, this is the hope for Warner Bros. moving forward. Realistically, it is a Harvey Dent coin flip whether The Dark Knight Rises has an exceptional second weekend holdover. The combination of negative news and the opening ceremonies for The Olympics could still discourage consumers. If the latter is true, the final domestic performance of The Dark Knight Rises will fall far short of expectations.
Unlike The Dark Knight Rises, the rest of the top ten performed as expected from Monday to Tuesday. All nine titles increased between 14% (Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Family Protection) and 36% (Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted). Combined box office for the top ten was $28.9 million. This amount represents an increase of 2% from Monday’s $28.2 million. Given that The Dark Knight Rises comprises a whopping 60% of that revenue and that it fell $1.6 million from Monday, the overall increase is quite impressive.
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