Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 14, 2012

Where do mammoths get their hair done?

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Ice Age: Continental Drift

The fourth Ice Age entry starts out with a cool $16.5 million on Friday. This is right in the wheelhouse of the series. While it doesn't touch The Meltdown ($21.7 million Friday and $68 million weekend), it's not terribly far off from Dawn of the Dinosaurs' $17.2 million opening in July 2009. The third entry was also a Wednesday opening as it opened over July 4th, which fell on a Saturday, so throw out the 2.42 multiplier that film managed. After the Pixar empire and the Shrek franchise, the Ice Age movies have been reliable performers for Fox even as we've moved into a time when CGI entries no longer feel special. Continental Drift will also be a solid overseas earner, especially after Dawn of the Dinosaurs earned over $600 million. Easily the top option for families seeking a break from the heat, Continental Drift will take the weekend crown with $51.5 million.

The Amazing Spider-Man

The Spidey reboot earned $10.3 million on Friday, off 50.2% from last Friday. It gets tougher to sugarcoat this, as it's going to likely fall short of the $200 million mark after two weekends. This is not calling it a flop by any means, but it's certainly a huge disappointment, especially when you look at the grosses of the previous Spider-Man releases. It is most assuredly not going to make $300 million, which is stunning even considering the "worst" of the previous three Spider-Man releases in the last decade was $336 million. A second weekend of $31.1 is about where it it should land.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Ice Age: Continental Drift 51.5
2 The Amazing Spider-Man 31.1
3 Ted 20.9
4 Brave 10.1
5 Magic Mike 8.6
6 Savages 7.9
7 Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection 5.2
8 Moonrise Kingdom 3.4
9 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 3.3
10 Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D 3.1



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