Daily Box Office Analysis
By David Mumpower
July 12, 2012
Wednesday box office was brutal as expected. Every title in the top ten fell from Tuesday, and only seven titles earned at least $1 million. This is part of the routine weekly box office behavior we have been discussing, albeit the depressing aspect.
The Amazing Spider-Man finally had a great day on Tuesday with $8,631,651 million, but it fell 25% on Wednesday to $6,503,281. The fourth Spider-Man movie has a running domestic total of $159,713,629 after ten days in theaters. I had projected $195 million for it by close of business Sunday and that looks to be a fair evaluation, possibly a bit low if it recovers some on the weekend. I’m confident Sony would like to claim $200 million with the next set of weekend numbers so this is what I’m expecting even if doubt the math on it checks out.
Ted claims second place for the ninth straight day. Its $4,004,880 Wednesday take is a drop of 16% from Tuesday, one of the better holds in the top ten for the day. A current total of $133,085,715 after 13 days is probably double what Universal was hoping the movie would earn during its domestic run. Instead, this amount could be as little as half of what it winds up earning, depending on its weekend holds over the next two frames.
Brave, Magic Mike and Savages round out the top five. The Pixar release earned $2,650,102, also a 16% fall from Tuesday. Magic Mike oddly bests it with a 9% drop to $2,503,417. And Savages takes a step backward with a 21% decline to $1,537,380. As an aside, Magic Mike’s Channing Tatum is talking sequel, as are the people involved with Ted. These are the least surprising announcements of the summer thus far. Still, Ted and Magic Mike becoming franchises is a fascinating turn of events.
Katy Perry: Part of Me continues its quirky weekday ascension. With $1,084,017, it is down 20% from Tuesday. Still, the 3D release finishes in sixth place once again, which is an odd improvement from eighth place on Sunday and Monday. I still expect it to die this weekend, but $13,850,052 is at least $1.5 million higher than I would have expected after seven days given its atrocious performance last weekend.
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted is the final title earning north of a million. Its $1,067,702 on Wednesday is a 17% fall from Tuesday. Also, with $199,196,845 in the bank, it is likely (although not certain) to pass $200 million today. Madea’s Witness Protection is not over a million because it fell 20% to $964,045.
The strongest holds in the top ten belong to the bottom dwellers, arthouse sensations Moonrise Kingdom and To Rome with Love. These films drop 7% and 9% respectively to $492,177 and $305,000 (estimated). Moonrise Kingdom is at $28,280,427 while To Rome with Love will break $6 million by close of business today.
Overall revenue for the top ten yesterday was $21.1 million. This is a 19% drop overall. Also, keep in remind that today’s box office will be even worse. Ice Age: Why Do They Even Bother With New Titles For This cannot get here soon enough.