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Even then, I’m not 100% certain it passes $260 million domestically. If it follows the Transformers pattern from here, The Amazing Spider-Man has earned 51.8% of its total revenue by now. This extrapolates to $279 million, yet the way it keeps falling short of matching the model requires a lessening of expectations. If we continue to see a fall in its numbers day to day, something we will monitor in this column over the next two weeks, The Amazing Spider-Man could wind up earning as much as $75 million less than its immediate predecessor.

The biggest surprise in the top ten continues to be Ted, which finished in second place yesterday with another $4,477,335. With a running total of $124,327,075 after 11 days in release, Ted has a chance to BEAT The Amazing Spider-Man before this is all said and done. Ted is down 49% from last Monday on the heels of a respectable second weekend decline of 41%.

Ted is holding better on the weekends than on weekdays, which is not surprising for such adult fare. In fact, this is fairly similar to The Hangover, which was “only” at $110,299,949 after 11 days. Given that it wound up with $277.3 million, that Ted is exceeding that pace and that Spidey projects to $280 million as a best case scenario, this should be an interesting race to watch. The Amazing Spider-Man should be surpassed in daily revenue by Ted at some point in the next ten days or so. The question is whether the gap is too large by then for the tortoise to catch the hare.

I’m going to save the Brave/Pixar update for later in the week. Instead, I would like to discuss last weekend’s new openers, Savages and Katy Perry: All of Me. Savages finished in fifth place at the box office yesterday behind Brave and Magic Mike. Savages fell 61% from Sunday to Monday with $1,813,320. As is the case with Ted, this is strongly adult fare, so it should not be expected to do as well on weekdays. Still, a 61% drop is troublesome.

The producers of Katy Perry: All of Me made the unusual decision to debut on a Thursday and their logic became clear on Sunday. Its four-day estimate edged it over $10 million. Weekend actuals indicated that it earned $10.2 million over this period with $7.1 million of that accrued Friday-to-Sunday. The news was slightly better yesterday as the Katy Perry biopic/concert movie grossed $1,170,475, which is frankly a lot better than I would have expected. Anecdotally, my local exhibitor has dropped the movie’s non-3D screening to 11 a.m. only. Whether 3D inflation is artificially inflating the movie’s Monday total is up for debate, but yesterday it did outperform Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted and Madea’s Witness Protection, both of which had beaten it over the weekend. Given how family friendly Madagascar 3 is, I am shocked by this turn of events.

Revenue for the combined top ten yesterday was just under $22.5 million, a steep 47% decline from last Thurday’s $42.1 million. Just to demonstrate how quickly things change at the box office, The Amazing Spider-Man alone earned more than that on July 4th. On July 5th, a non-holiday, Ted and The Amazing Spider-Man combined for more. This will be a relatively slow week at the box office with The Amazing Spider-Man cooling off quickly and no impending weekday releases.

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