Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 30, 2012

Every guy dreams of being a fireman when he grows up.

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It's the most unexpected 1-2 punch of all time this weekend as uncouth teddy bears and male strippers take over the pre-holiday box office.


The R-rated comedy is the biggest winner on Friday, with an astonishing $20.2 million. Credit a hilarious concept, a funny trailer, above average reviews and the fact that Seth McFarlane's Ted voice is a close-but-not-exact version of Peter Griffin. Of course, with this success, McFarlane might be able to make a Family Guy movie if he wants to now. Ted and Magic Mike will be neck and neck throughout the weekend, but the edge should remain with Ted as despite the rating, it's got somewhat of a wider audience than Magic Mike and will not be as significantly as frontloaded. Give Ted the win with a weekend of $52.2 million.

Magic Mike

Beefcake-laden Magic Mike is pretty close behind Ted with a quite strong $19.4 million Friday. The ultimate ladies night out movie (at least since the Sex and the City movies), Magic Mike is actually the best reviewed movie of the weekend, which is understandable if you remember the director is Stephen Soderberg. Despite that, Sex and the City might very well be the best comparison. While that started with $26.7 million at the end of May in 2008, it had a 2.12 multiplier and a $56.8 million weekend, likely due to the instant built in fanbase for the TV show adaptation. I expect Magic Mike to land a couple notches above that, thanks mostly to the reviews, but it'll still be more frontloaded than Ted is. Still, that means Magic Mike finishes the weekend with an, um, beefy $44.6 million.


Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection

Tyler Perry goes back to the Madea well and gets $10.3 million on Friday. This is in line with past Madea films such as Madea's Family Reunion ($10.4 million in Feburary 2006) and Madea's Big Happy Family ($10.4 million in April 2011), but not quite reaching Perry's most successful entry, Madea Goes to Jail ($14.7 million in April 2009). Note the similarities in the box office of the Madea films released in 2006 and 2011, five years apart. The prolific Perry has had one of the most reliable and consistent stretches of box office since Diary of a Mad Black Woman premiered in 2005. But with one exception, he's never been able to expand his audience beyond his core. It's hard to call $24.9 million for the weekend disappointing, since it's pretty much in his opening weekend wheelhouse (though its the lowest Madea opening), but you can tell even his base is just about over his schtick.

People Like Us

The most normal-seeming film among the releases this weekend, People Like Us can only muster $1.4 million on Friday. Call it a weekend of $4 million for something you'll forget ever got a theatrical release two months from now.


Pixar's Brave earned $10.3 million on its second Friday, down 57.2% from last Friday. That's not as bad as Cars 2's Friday-to-Friday decline of 69%, but worse than Up's second weekend drop of 38%. While currently even with Witness Protection, the second weekend of an animated film will blow way past it. Look for a second weekend of $34 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Ted 52.2
2 Magic Mike 44.6
3 Brave 34.0
4 Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion 24.9
5 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 11.4
6 Abramham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 5.2
7 Moonrise Kingdom 4.7
8 Prometheus 4.6
9 Snow White and the Huntsman 4.2
10 People Like Us 4.0



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