Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 26, 2012

I thought Agent K was taller.

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Men in Black III

Ten years after Men in Black II, Men In Black III starts with $17.7 million on Friday, good enough to finally knock The Avengers out of the top spot for the first time since its release. Looking back to MIB II, that opened over the July 4th holiday (as all Will Smith movies did at the time) and started on Wednesday with $18.5 million, while taking in $87.2 million over five days and $52.1 million in the weekend proper.

While it's obviously not a good thing that Men in Black III's opening Friday did not match Men in Black II's best day (Friday with $19.8 million), Memorial Day weekend will help it a bit thanks to boosting its Sunday box office. Last year saw The Hangover Part II manage a 2.86 multiplier, even after opening and having its best box office day on Thursday, giving it a weekend of $85.9 million over the Friday-to-Sunday period. Men in Black III will obviously not reach those heights and while not an out and out failure, it will probably end up as one of the highest earning entries in the Year of Sequels Nobody Was Really Waiting For. Give Men in Black III a three-day weekend of $50.4 million and $60 million in four days.

The Chernobyl Diaries

Horror entry The Chernobyl Diaries comes in with $3.5 million, which is fine. This is just there, and looks to land right in the wheelhouse for the genre, coming in with about $10 million for the weekend, and another $11 million or so over four days.

The Avengers

After 21 days on top, The Avengers finally makes way for Men in Black III, not before taking in another $9.5 million. It has now earned $486.2 million, and will likely pass the $500 million mark on Saturday. It won't quite pass The Dark Knight this weekend, but next weekend should do the trick. Give it another $35.4 million for the weekend and $41 million over four days.



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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Men in Black III 50.4
2 The Avengers 35.4
3 Battleship 11.6
4 The Chernobyl Diaries 9.9
5 The Dictator 9.8
6 Dark Shadows 7.5
7 What to Expect When You're Expecting 7.1
8 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 5.9
9 The Hunger Games 2.3
10 Think Like a Man 1.4

     


 
 

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