Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 21, 2012

We refuse to live in a world where Gabrielle Union willingly dates Turtle from Entourage.

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Think Like a Man

Think Like a Man is a surprise breakout on Friday, earning $12.2 million in just over 2,000 theaters. It's been a long time since we've had something targeted at predominantly African-American audiences like Think Like a Man, not without a prefix of "Tyler Perry's," anyway. Perhaps that even worked in its favor, as judging from the gross of February's (Tyler Perry's) Good Deeds, his schtick is wearing thin, unless he puts on a dress. There's actually a small chance Think Like a Man earns more on its opening weekend than Good Deeds did in its entire run ($34.7 million). It's not likely, but it's in play. The most likely place for Think Like a Man is on top with a pretty astonishing $30.5 million.

The Lucky One

The latest Nicholas Sparks adaptation, this one starring Zac Efron, also does very well on Friday with $9.1 million. That's a very solid Friday, though the best Sparks adaptation belongs to 2010's Dear John which started with $13.7 million back in February 2010 and finished with $30.4 million thanks to the Super Bowl). The five-hanky weeper can probably thank Zac Efron for a few extra bucks (it seems audiences have forgiven him for Charlie St. Cloud), and gives the weekend two out of nowhere $20 million openers. The Lucky One should come in with $23.8 million for the weekend.

Chimpanzee

Disney's annual nature documentary checks in with $3.5 million. Much like Oceans, African Cats and the like, Chimpanzees will not throw a monkey wrench into the weekend box office estimates, as it should come in with about $7 million.

The Hunger Games

After four weekends on Top, The Hunger Games finally slides down to third place with $4 million. It's got a chance at $400 million, but it's looking likely that it might run out of gas just shy of that amount (it's at $346 million after Friday). Give it a weekend of $13.1 million.

Notable Holdovers

BOP-fave Cabin in the Woods drops 56% from last Friday with $2.4 million, which is fairly standard for what's ostensibly a horror movie. Despite placing behind it last weekend, thanks to stronger weekdays, it's actually neck and neck with The Three Stooges thanks to stronger weekdays. That will play better over the rest of the weekend than Cabin in the Woods, though, so the gap will widen a bit with the rest of the weekend. Look for a second weekend of $6.6 million.

Speaking of the Stooges, the comedy is off 59% from last Friday to $2.3 million. Let's give it a weekend of $7.4 million and forget it ever happened, okay?



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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Think Like a Man 30.5
2 The Lucky One 23.8
3 The Hunger Games 13.1
4 The Three Stooges 7.4
5 Chimpanzee 7.0
6 Cabin in the Woods 6.6
7 Titanic 3D 5.0
8 American Reunion 4.8
9 21 Jump Street 4.4
10 Mirror Mirror 3.6

     


 
 

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