Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 7, 2012

This isn't a movie promo shot, it's just what they do all the time since they don't work.

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The Hunger Games

Unsurprisigly, The Hunger Games remains on top for a third weekend with $12.9 million, down 31.7% from its second Friday. That's a pretty solid recovery from last weekend when it was coming off its heavily inflated opening day. It's Easter weekend, so the Friday figure may have been helped by Good Friday, while Sunday is generally a lousy box office day for most films.

Last weekend's multiplier was 3.14, helped by a really solid Saturday. I expect a similar performance here, though it'll give a few bucks back with a bigger Sunday decline. That would give it a third weekend of $39.2 million as it inches near the $300 million mark.

American Reunion

The fourth American Pie movie continues the Year of Unasked For Sequels and starts surprisingly strong with $9.2 million. It's been almost nine years since American Wedding, which started with $12.2 million in August of 2003 and had a $33.3 million weekend. All three previous theatrical entries (did you know there were four direct-to-DVD sequels? Eugene Levy, if you needed money, why didn't you ask?) broke $100 million, but I don't think American Reunion is going to be in it for the long haul. It will start with a weekend of $23.3 million.

Titanic 3D

Opening on Wednesday (where it was still second to The Hunger Games), a re-release of Titanic in 3D earned $7.1 million on Friday after earning about $8 million over Wednesday and Thursday. Despite $600 million in box office fifteen years ago, Titanic 3D exists strictly for nostalgia value and that appears to be it. Give it a weekend of $19.8 million.

Notable Holdovers

Wrath of the Titans drops 56% from last weekend to $5.4 million. That probably could've been a lot worse but it's still kind of bad. A second weekend of $15.6 million should be in store.

Mirror Mirror holds quite solidly, off just 22% from last Friday to $4.5 million. It's still a bit of a disappointment with a mediocre opening but it seems there might be some legs here. Look for a second weekend of $13 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Hunger Games 39.2
2 American Reunion 23.3
3 Titanic 3D 19.8
4 Wrath of the Titans 15.6
5 Mirror Mirror 13.0
6 21 Jump Street 11.0
7 The Lorax 7.9
8 Salmon Fishing in the Yemen 1.1
9 John Carter 1.0
10 Housefull 2 0.7



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