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Tim Briody: Six months ago I knew The Hunger Games was a popular young adult fiction series, and figured it was Twilight-ish. One week before its release, I know three things: that it's not Twilight-ish, there's a decent chance it's a *good* movie, and it's going to open to over $100 million.

Shalimar Sahota: I knew hardly anything about The Hunger Games six months ago. Only that there was a film in the works that happens to be based on a book, and it sounds a bit like Battle Royale. I've since read up about the film. I'm guessing that as Twilight dies down, this'll be the next franchise to fill the void. The hype appears to be justified, as so far the reviews are all good, so maybe it'll play well over the coming weeks rather than blowing it's top just on the opening weekend. Like Tom, I'd actually be more interested to see how it plays on its second weekend. Fandango is already reporting sold out screenings for this weekend. Add in the midnight screenings and some are predicting that an opening of around $130 - $140 million could be on the cards. I'm going to go against the stupendously high expectations and say that I think it'll open somewhere between $95 - $105 million, maybe a little below the $100 million mark, which is still not a bad thing.

David Mumpower: I was one of the many people who bought Mockingjay the first day it was available. I say many people because it was the bestseller on Amazon that day. That number of fans feels like a drop in the bucket now, though. The Hunger Games has evolved into a property with massive awareness that evokes a good bit of curiosity even from people who know little to nothing of it. I have always maintained that this is one of the most commercial concepts in recent memory. I felt confident six months ago that this title could open on the scale of 300. What we have evaluated in recent years is the manner through which best selling novels evolve into motion picture events. Twilight has been the comparison most often utilized yet I never believed that was apt. Twilight is like Titanic in that it appeals primarily to one hardcore demographic, women. The Hunger Games is much more like Harry Potter in that the concept includes a massive adrenaline surge of action, thereby appealing to men as well.

The surprise has been watching this title evolve from a strong contender for one of the best openings pre-summer ever to this. We are now speaking as if not reaching $100 million is just okay relative to our expanding expectations. Just think about that for a moment. There are four "new" properties that have ever opened north of $90 million. Those are Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone ($90.3 million), Alice in Wonderland ($116.1 million), Iron Man ($102.1 million) and Spider-Man ($114.8 million). Iron Man was created in 1968, Spider-Man debuted in 1962 and Alice in Wonderland was written in 1865.

Only Harry Potter had a short window from the debut of the book in 1998 until the launch of the movie in 2001 yet still managed a $90+ million debut. It is all but impossible for a new property to explode into the public consciousness like this. Consider that Twilight, for all of its triumphs, "only" started with $69.6 million in the same three year gap from debut of the first book to the first movie adaptation. Given the tracking for The Hunger Games, it will approach that number within 36 hours of its debut in theaters. There is even an outside chance it does that in a single day. Alice in Wonderland represents the largest movie debut ever for a "new" property with $116.1 million. Tracking data, unreliable though it may be, indicates that The Hunger Games will probably break that record if not destroy it. We are witnessing one of the most remarkable movie stories of the 2000s.

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