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Nobody expected Peter Jackson's adaptation of the Lord of the Rings trilogy to dominate the Oscars the way it did, culminating in The Return of the King's record-tying 11 Oscars. Now we are prepared, and expectations are sky high for The Hobbit, adapted from J.R.R. Tolkien's prequel to The Lord of the Rings. Since his domination of the Oscars in 2004, King Kong had to settle for a slew of technical nominations, and The Lovely Bones flopped, scoring only Best Supporting Actor for Stanley Tucci. Has backlash against Jackson built up in the Academy? If The Hobbit is not as gloriously received as the trilogy was, I would not be surprised if it doesn't get a Best Picture nomination.

While some might call the expansion of Best Picture “the Dark Knight rule,” others would call it “the Pixar rule.” Since the expansion, two Pixar films have been nominated for Best Picture, and the other one was Cars 2. Back with a new original film, Pixar practically has a spot reserved for it if Brave is up to the quality of Pixar's usual products. The film looks like a return to the top of Pixar's game, and being the first film from the studio to feature a female protagonist might predispose some voters toward supporting it. If the reviews are great there is no reason to think that Brave won't be Pixar's third Best Picture nominee.

Tim Burton has become more of a mainstay at the Oscars over the last decade, almost in direct proportion to the decline in quality of his films. It seems that film critics don't care for Burton's decision to put style above substance, but the Oscars can't get enough, although Burton has never had a film that was really in the running for Best Picture (Sweeney Todd is the closest he's come). Will Dark Shadows, based on Gothic soap opera from the '60s, earn more respect than most of Burton's latest work? Most people are keeping their hopes low, expecting the trademark transcendent visuals, which will likely mean a couple of artistic nominations, but not much more.

Alfonso Cuaron's last directorial effort was the sci-fi classic Children of Men, which scored a few Oscar nominations but couldn't break into the Best Picture or Best Director fields. Now Cuaron is back with Gravity, about two astronauts stranded in space. The Academy seems to not care for sci-fi films set in space unless they are on par with 2001 or Avatar. Still, with Oscar winners George Clooney and Sandra Bullock starring, this film will certainly get attention during Oscar season, although whether that translates to nominations is a very different matter.

Harry Potter never found much love at the Oscars, but could a darker, more violent, less magical children's film fare better at the Oscars? The Hunger Games is likely to become one of the first big hits of 2012, and features a number of previous Oscar nominees both behind and in front of the camera. Gary Ross (Pleasantville, Seabiscuit) wrote and directed, and Jennifer Lawrence, Woody Harrelson, and Stanley Tucci all star in the film. Between the bias against films aimed at young audiences and an early release date that will make the film largely forgotten, Hunger Games, barring a miracle, is looking for at best nominations for its art direction and costumes.

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