Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis and David Mumpower

February 11, 2012

There had better not be any yellow in there.

New at BOP:
Share & Save
Digg Button  
Print this column
The calendar may say mid-February, but the box office is acting like it's summertime. There were three new movies and one returning juggernaut from over a decade ago, and the worst of these doubled up last weekend's #1 film, Chronicle. Suffice to say that yesterday is one of the strongest overall box office top tens in February history. Not only do this weekend's top six films blow away any January Friday, but they also surpass the Christmas week and New Year's week daily totals.

Winning a box office race like this is most impressive, and the fact that The Vow made $15.4 million as a straightforward romance is all the more remarkable. Industry observers were surprised by the film's strong tracking in recent days, and Friday's performance exceeds even those expectations. Women love the movie concept of soulmates kept apart by fate, searching for a way to bridge the gap. The story has elements from such beloved films as While You Were Sleeping, Return to Me, The Notebook, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and with Rachel McAdams and Channing Tatum at the film's center, the beautiful people are there to entice consumers into theaters. The staggering debut probably does include some front-loading from the Nicholas Sparks group (even though this is not a movie based on one of his books), and as such an overall weekend total of $42.5 million is in play. This total will represent a massive win for a $30 million production.

Second place yesterday was Safe House, but let's focus more on the fact that its $13.8 million is the third biggest Friday of the year to date. It has the misfortune of going up against the second-largest Friday of the year in own opening weekend, and both The Vow and Safe House will have weekend totals that will beat The Devil Inside, which has the largest Friday so far this year with $16.8 million, but has a running total of $53.1 million. The Denzel Washington thriller will be the largest opening weekend for the actor since 2007's American Gangster and the second-biggest of his storied career. Washington is among the most reliable box office draws in the world, and it's clear that consumers enjoy seeing him as an antihero. His two largest openings (including this movie) and his most iconic role (Training Day) have shown this to be the case. Safe House should garner $39.3 million for the weekend.




Advertisement



Webster's Dictionary defines addiction as "persistent compulsive use of a substance known by the user to be harmful." In layman's terms, even if the creator of a beloved movie spits on its legacy whenever possible, going so far as to claim that an iconic moment everyone remembers never actually happened, people *still* show up to his movies in giant numbers. Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace, one of the least-liked blockbusters of our lifetime, has been given the 3D treatment. It's a blatant cash grab with the intent to get the film over a billion dollars worldwide, and there's no reason people should want to go see this (Jar Jar Binks!), but they do anyway. It made another $8.6 million on Friday, giving it a running total of $439.7 million worth of gullible ticket buyers. We're expecting yesterday's viewers to have been just die-hard fans, but there's a chance we're wrong and it skews strongly to families. If it holds true to what we think will happen, it will wind up with $21.5 million. To quote Spaced's Tim Bisley, "You are so blind! You so do not understand! You weren't there at the beginning! You don't know how good it was, how important! This is it for you! This jumped-up firework display of a toy advert! People like you make me sick! What's wrong with you? Now, I don't care if you've saved up all your 50p's, take your pocket money and get out!"

The "worst" of the four new titles was Journey 2: The Mysterious Island. The 3D sequel to Journey of the Center of the Earth made $6.6 million yesterday. The first movie, which featured Brendan Fraser, made $6.7 million on its way to a $21 million opening weekend and $107 million domestically. The follow-up substitutes The Rock for Fraser and a February opening for July, and effectively matches its predecessor. It was a bit of a stretch to do a sequel in the first place, so this feels like a win for Warner Bros, especially since it's already tallied over $40 million overseas. It will have a domestic weekend total of around $20.5 million.

Last weekend's top two films, Chronicle and The Woman in Black, were separated by only $300,000 with $8.6 million and $8.3 million respectively last Friday. Yesterday looked very similar, as Chronicle earned $3.5 million while Woman in Black took in $3.4 million. The Daniel Radcliffe ghost story held up slightly better than the found footage "superhero" film, and should overtake it for the weekend. The Woman in Black will tally $10.5 million over the weekend, while Chronicle should drop to $10.4 million, though they'll continue to be neck and neck as they'll be inextricably linked.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 The Vow 42.5
2 Safe House 39.3
3 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace 21.5
4 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 20.5
5 The Woman in Black 10.5
6 Chronicle 10.4
7 The Grey 4.5
8 Big Miracle 2.9
9 The Descendants 2.5
10 One for the Money 2.0

     


 
 

Need to contact us? E-mail a Box Office Prophet.
Sunday, May 19, 2024
© 2024 Box Office Prophets, a division of One Of Us, Inc.