Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 4, 2012

I hope his parents have a low deductible on that car he just mind-crushed.

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Super Bowl weekend gets off to a super start with two very solid openers in a close race.

Chronicle

Found footage film Chronicle gets off to an excellent start on Friday with $8.7 million, just ahead of The Woman in Black. The excellent reviews and hot trailer brought out viewers in advance of the Super Bowl, which is one of the worst box office days of the year. Looking at last year, The Roommate was the top film of the weekend, with $15 million after a $6.4 million Friday. That was a 2.33 multiplier and the fate of everything this weekend is pretty similar. I'd give Chronicle a still very good weekend of $20.9 million.

The Woman in Black

Virtually neck and neck with Chronicle is Daniel Radcliffe's The Woman in Black, with $8.3 million on Friday. I'm inclined to give the edge to Woman in Black to win the weekend thanks to the presence of Radcliffe, who is clearly going to have a very solid post-Harry Potter box office career. With an audience of mostly younger women, it's less likely to be affected by the Super Bowl (though it certainly will be). It's going to be super close when the estimates come in, but The Woman in Black should win in a squeaker with $21.1 million.

Big Miracle

Family film Big Miracle earned $2.3 million on Friday. Drew Barrymore lended some star power but it really doesn't matter in this genre. A whale version of Dolphin Tale this is not. Family films don't fare much better over Super Bowl weekend either, so Big Miracle will disappear quietly with a weekend of $5.5 million.

Notable Holdovers

Liam Neeson's The Grey earned $3.2 million, off 50.7% from last Friday. That's worse than last year's Unknown (42.7%) and of course the super leggy Taken (34.1%), but it wasn't expected to hold as well as those, either. A second weekend of about $8.1 million should be where it ends up.

Meanwhile, One for the Money drops 58.5% from last Friday to $1.7 million and Man on a Ledge is down 40% to $1.5 million. Neither will be a big factor in the weekend, as One for the Money should earn $4.4 million and Man on a Ledge looks to finish with $4 million.



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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 The Woman in Black 21.1
2 Chronicle 20.9
3 The Grey 8.1
4 Big Miracle 5.5
5 Underworld: Awakening 4.6
6 One for the Money 4.4
7 Red Tails 4.1
8 Man on a Ledge 4.0
9 The Descendents 3.5
10 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 3.2

     


 
 

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