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Max Braden: One of the things I'm most interested in about Oscar nominees is how they compare or contrast to the other guild nominees. The first thing I notice here is that the two male acting performances nominated by the Screen Actors Guild for J. Edgar were passed up by the Oscars. Back in the fall, I was expecting Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy to be a strong contender, but when the guild nominees were announced it was left out. That's not something I was annoyed at after seeing the movie, since it disappointed me, but I think it's notable that the Oscars nominated it for both acting and screenplay (though they left it out in order to nominate War Horse for cinematography). Also interesting are the acting and picture nominations for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, and directing and picture nominations for The Tree of Life, of which those respective guilds passed up.

The movie that's really surprising me here is Hugo, admittedly because I underestimated it. Sure it's got a good pedigree and has hints of Oliver Twist, but it presents itself as a popcorn movie; based on a children's story (not exactly Scorsese's wheelhouse), plenty of fantasy elements, presented in 3D. I figured it would get a pat on the head, make lots of money, and that would be that. Now here it is with the most nominations, and I can't dismiss it as the movie to beat. Still, I think voters will also like the charm of The Artist (which has already won the Producers Guild Award), and The Descendants seems like an easy sell as your standard Oscar leader.

For quick picks, based on a gut feeling, I'll predict: newcomer Jean Dujardin gets appreciation for his role in The Artist, tried and true Streep as Thatcher in The Iron Lady, Plummer getting career attention with Beginners, Octavia Spencer to show some love for The Help, screenplays for Midnight in Paris and Hugo, and... I feel so on the fence about these: Cinematography, Directing, and picture for The Artist.

For my own favorites I try to avoid "standard" choices. This year I liked Tom Hardy's intense performance in Warrior, Elle Fanning's lovely performance in Super 8, the sincere humor brought by Jonah Hill and Melissa McCarthy, the rollercoaster directing and writing in Moneyball, and the sheer intensity and eye-popping visuals of Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. Of the actual nominees, I'd really like to see Melissa McCarthy get the win.

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