Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

January 11, 2012

That just happened.

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It turned out to *not* be the family movie of the season. But it probably was still a better option than Chipwrecked.

Kim Hollis: Let's finally discuss the late-December openers, starting with the most recognizable one. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo fell just 23% to $11.4 million this weekend. Its running total is $79.1 million. What do you think of its run so far?

Tim Briody: I'm stunned that it wasn't a top contender over the holidays but cannot figure out why. A month ago I was thinking that The Millennium Trilogy and The Hunger Games series would be neck and neck as the next big literary adaptation, but now I expect The Hunger Games to absolutely crush TGWTDT.

Matthew Huntley: Given the dark subject matter of Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, I think it's performing admirably so far, especially given that it was released around the holidays. It looks like Sony's counter-programming to all the brighter, more action-oriented fare is paying off; it's just taking a little longer than expected. Girl is very adult-themed and these films tend to show good legs, so in the end, I think $110 million is a reachable figure, with much more to come from overseas, perhaps for a grand total of $250 million. On a positive note, I don't think anyone has had anything bad to say about it.




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Brett Beach: I think the subject matter may have something to do with its slow but steady performance, which goes to show that what a gazillion people read doesn't always translate over into what they are willing to pay to watch. I think the decision to counter the Spielberg/Crowe/Chipmunk offerings of December with darker entertainment was bold and ultimately justified. Would this have done better in the summer months? Perhaps, but considering this was strictly for adults, launching it during the "12 Days of Christmas" when a large enough contingent could find the time to get out to it over a two week period, and thus keep spreading positive word-of-mouth, this may have been the best case scenario. It should be kept afloat until Oscar noms, which if it gets Picture/Director/Actress could propel it even further.

Edwin Davies: I think this is about as good a result as we could have expected, really. The book may be massively popular, but the subject matter is so bleak and tough that a lot of people probably felt that it wasn't something that they wanted to see realized on a cinema screen. The quality of the film (I thought it was just okay, but far from bad) has really won out over the last couple of weeks, allowing for word-of-mouth to build and carry it beyond the magic 12 days of box office. More importantly, as the only really adult offering out there, it hasn't been as sharply affected by kids going back to school as some of the other holdovers. It should continue to hold pretty well, particularly if nominations are forthcoming. $100 million seems very likely at this point, though I doubt it will go much beyond $120 million.

If nothing else, this must be very encouraging for Quentin Tarantino since his next film, Django Unchained, is due to be released at the same time next year. It could be a fun, weird tradition for a hard R-rated film to be released every Christmas.


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