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Ballads:
The Living Proof - The Help

I am going to categorically state right now that there are no sure things in this category this year (get it, categorically, 'cause it's a category? I'm funny) but if there were any sure things - but there aren't - this would be the closest thing to a sure thing that there is. But, and I can't stress this enough, it's not. Yes, being from a Best Picture nominee gives this song a big advantage, as whatever the heck that song from Crash was can attest to, and yes, it is a ballad by Mary J. Blige from an inspirational movie about race and toilets and stuff. But none of that guarantees it a spot, especially since it plays over the closing credits. Remember when everyone was predicting that A Million Voices from Hotel Rwanda was going to get nominated? Or that Bruce Springsteen song from The Wrestler? Yes, this song has a better chance than any other to get nominated, but that still doesn't put its chances much better than “pretty good.”

Lay Your Head Down - Albert Nobbs

Albert Nobbs has received wildly mediocre reviews, but that probably doesn't matter here. If there is enough respect for Glenn Close to get her a Best Actress nomination (and it seems like there is), then there is enough to get her a Best Original Song nomination. She co-wrote the song from this movie, which is performed by Sinead O'Connor, and I don't know if it plays during the credits or over the film, because almost nobody has seen this movie. Still, the songwriters are probably old enough to know who Sinead O'Connor is (and I apologize if you know who Sinead O'Connor is and are inferring from this that I think you're really, really old), which will also play to this song's advantage.

Love Builds a Garden - Gnomeo and Juliet

Gnomeo and Juliet didn't get a lot of attention from the over-seven set, but any time Elton John writes a song for a movie it is going to get noticed. This guy could have probably had this category renamed The Elton John Best Original Song Award in 1994, when he received three nominations for his work on The Lion King. Still, when pop stars get nominated for writing ballads in animated films, it is usually for better-known films. Is Gnomeo and Juliet on the same level of Tarzan, or even The Emperor's New Groove? No, but John is still a force in this race.

The Keeper - Machine Gun Preacher

I don't think anybody saw this movie, which was a Christian-themed action flick starring Gerard Butler. Really the only aspect that got any attention was Chris Cornell's song. If voters don't actually see the movie it is unlikely that just seeing the song playing over some footage will be enough to get them to nominate, unless the song is integral to the film, which this song doesn't seem to be. There is also surprisingly little crossover between the Globes and the Oscars in this category, but considering how few precursors have a song category, any time a song gets nominated anywhere it belongs in the conversation for the Oscars.

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