New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

Which brings me to another interesting point about the films that the composers tend to nominate. In some categories being a Best Picture contender is an advantage, as voters are more likely to pick a film that they are already supporting for Best Picture. The film composers do not seem to have that mindset; since the merger into one category, there have never been more than three Best Picture nominees appearing in the Best Score category, and often there is only one. This means that while a film like The Help will be able to use its status as a Best Picture contender to its advantage in some fields, it is unlikely that its score will be nominated. However, the fact that Thomas Newman is the film's composer will definitely help, as the composers love Newman almost as much as they love Williams.

I do think that Howard Shore's work on the film Hugo will turn a lot of heads... or ears, I guess. This is a film that, like The Artist, is defined by its visuals and its music more than anything else, and it seems like the kind of film that every branch will love for different reasons. Howard Shore has never been nominated for a film that doesn't have the words “Lord of the Rings” in the title, but this should be the film that busts him out of that slump.

Three other men have composed scores for film that likely won't be competing for Best Picture but are certainly in consideration here. Dario Marianelli has scored nominations for two previous historical literary adaptations, and is back again with Jane Eyre. The composers don't mind nominating films that came out early in the year if they have the prestige factor, and Jane Eyre has prestige out the wazoo. Alberto Iglesias is represented by Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, which no longer seems to be a serious threat to be nominated for Best Picture. But a film with a very dark, noirish tone seems like a good bet for success here, and Iglesias could get his second nomination, especially if a couple of the other contenders fail to impress.

The wild card this year is Michael Giacchino. Giacchino has two nominations, both for Pixar films, and this year stepped out of Pixar's embrace to score JJ Abrams's Super 8. A throwback to '80s adventure films, Super 8 could tap in on the nostalgia of the composers, who might fall for Giacchino's moving and spirited score.

Of course, my hunch about Super 8's chances is pure speculation because, despite their tendencies, the composers are an unpredictable bunch. Who would have expected The Constant Gardener or The Hurt Locker to be an Oscar nominee? Unlike the acting categories that tend to get swayed by public opinion, the composers are steadfast: they like who they like, and they love what they love. It is respectable, in a way, even if it at times makes it frustrating to try and track their movements.

All that being said, here are my current predictions for Best Original Score, which are subject to change at any moment. I'll be back in the next couple of days with my thoughts on Best Original Song, which is, if it's possible, even more difficult to predict than its lyricless counterpart.

1. Ludovic Bource- The Artist
2. John Williams- War Horse
3. Howard Shore- Hugo
4. Dario Marianelli- Jane Eyre
5. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
6. Alexandre Desplat- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
7. John Williams- The Adventures of Tintin
8. Alberto Iglesias- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
9. Michael Giacchino- Super 8
10. Alexandre Desplat- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

*The exceptions to this rule are Best Foreign Language Film, Best Documentary Feature, and all of the short categories. In order to vote in those categories members must have seen every nominated film.

The Documentary filmmakers might give them a run for their money, though, as their snubs are legendary. This year four of the most famous living documentary filmmakers had films in the running, and all of them were left off the 15-film shortlist. Steve James (The Interrupters), Morgan Spurlock (Pom Wonderful Presents The Greatest Movie Ever Sold) Errol Morris (Tabloid) and Werner Herzog (The Cave of forgotten Dreams and Into the Abyss) make the case for the Documentarians as equally eccentric as the composers.

Continued:       1       2       3