The Twelve Days of Box Office

By David Mumpower

December 27, 2011

Way to ruin Christmas again!

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With regards to the other major releases, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked is still performing like a piece of chip. Still, its $6.9 million on Monday represents its second best day in theaters thus far, surpassing even its opening day total of $6.7 million. For a movie that is so clearly struggling, that box office bump is much needed good news. Its running tally of $56.5 million is starting to look respectable.

The news is even better for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. After an opening weekend that created a consensus opinion that this was not a title to release around Christmas, David Fincher’s latest drama earned $6.7 million. To put this in perspective, this is a full million dollars more than it had earned on any of its first five days in theaters. Stating the obvious, no film should have its best day on its sixth day in theaters. That is simply not the way box office behavior ordinarily works. In case you are wondering if there is another recent holiday example of such odd box office behavior, the answer is yes. Avatar’s best day in theaters, $28.3 million, did not occur until its ninth day in theaters.

The biggest winner yesterday in terms of performance relative to established behavior is The Adventures of Tintin. After falling in the range of $2.3-$3.7 million over its first five days, Steven Spielberg’s second film in the top ten spiked to a whopping $6.4 million. This number is almost triple (!) its opening day tally of $2.3 million. And just like that, the movie switches from a modest (bordering on pathetic) $4.7 million after two days to $24.1 million after six days. Also, a movie should never earn $1.7 million more on its sixth day than it did in its first two days of released combined. That’s just common sense. This is a blueprint example of the way December holiday box office trending inflates all the titles in release, not just the major ones.




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We Bought a Zoo has behaved similarly. After earning $4.9 million during its first two days in release, BOP fave Cameron Crowe’s latest release increased to $4.5 million on Sunday then maxed out with $5.2 million on Monday. It has effectively tripled its domestic box office over the last 48 hours. And the titles in ninth and tenth place, New Year’s Eve and The Descendants, earned more yesterday than they did on Friday and Saturday combined. New Year’s Eve managed $1.8 million on Friday/Saturday but spiked to $1.9 million yesterday. The Descendants earned $1.0 million Friday/Saturday but was at $1.1 million on Monday. This will be the only time in several years (until 2016, to be exact) where several titles in release earn more on a Monday than during the totality of Friday and Saturday. It is otherwise incomprehensible.

Of course, some films simply cannot be helped. The Darkest Hour debuted to $3.0 million on Sunday but fell significantly to $2.1 million on Monday. Yes, this was also a Christmas Day release, so a Monday decline is not shocking, but a 30% drop on arguably the best box office date of the calendar year is problematic. The Darkest Hour is only two days into its release and already looking as if it’s done. It will be lucky to recoup half of its $30 million production budget.


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