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The Tree of Life

When you think of filmmakers who are considered both weird and brilliant, you have to include Terrence Malick along with Terry Gilliam, David Lynch, and Uwe Boll. Malick has only had one film nominated for Best Picture, 1998's The Thin Red Line, but considering that he's only made two films in the last 40 years, that's a pretty good track record. Does the critically-beloved, Palm D'or winning, arthouse hit The Tree of Life have a shot at being nominated for Best Picture? Not really, unless the Academy is far more unconventional than they have ever been before. But if we're talking about films that could take The Help's Best Director nomination, this one is that the top of everybody's lists.

Young Adult

The last three films I'm going to mention are all long-shot dark horse candidates (not to be confused with War Horse candidates. Zing!) and where better to start than with the duo who are responsible for one of the stranger Best Picture nominees of the last decade. Nobody expected Juno to be a Best Picture nominee - I remember writing a very long article about how it had almost no chance of a nomination - but the combination of big box office and critical love propelled it onto the shortlist. Could the same happen with Diablo Cody and Jason Reitman's latest, Young Adult, starring Oscar winner Charlize Theron? The fact that its protagonist is intentionally unlikeable will be a strike against it, but not an insurmountable one. With the right amount of buzz, box office, and acclaim it could pull a Juno.

Drive

This is a tough one to predict, because it is very likely that it will get absolutely no attention from the Academy whatsoever. It is one of the darker and stranger films in this year's race, and will certainly not be to the taste of many Academy members. But the film has ravenous supporters, and those who like it really love it, which means it could get a lot of #1 votes on Oscar ballots. Ryan Gosling is also a rising star, and if support builds for him it will mean good things for this film. Only the craziest Oscar predictors would put it on their short list right now, but sometimes the craziest predictors are the ones laughing because they got it right... or maybe they're just laughing because they're crazy.

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Shame

Ever since Midnight Cowboy won Best Picture despite being rated X, it's been slim pickings at the Oscars for movies rated NC-17. Henry and June got a Cinematography nomination, and a slew of great films were overlooked because of their rating. Fox Searchlight is hoping to change that with Shame, starring indie darlings Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan. Considering the film is about sex addiction, it will have a steep road to an Oscar nomination, but by no means is it an impossible journey. Shame will be one of the most interesting films to keep an eye on in this year's Oscar race.

Obviously making predictions right now is futile, because everything will change when the NBR and the critics start handing out their awards, and then change again when the Guilds make their voices heard, but if I were to make a list of the films most likely to be nominated - not taking into account what I think has the best chance of winning - it would look like this:

1. The Descendants
2. The Artist
3. War Horse
4. The Help
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Midnight in Paris
8. The Ides of March
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
10. Moneyball
11. The Iron Lady
12. Hugo
13. Young Adult
14. We Bought a Zoo

*So is Uwe Boll, apparently. This year he had a docu-drama about the holocaust released on DVD. No, seriously, he made that movie. That's a real thing.

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