Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 5, 2011

Suddenly, Ben realizes how very much he misses Owen Wilson.

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Tower Heist

The ensemble caper comedy took in $8.1 million on Friday, which is in the lower end of expectations. With generally positive reviews and amusing enough ads, it's hard to figure out why this wasn't a bigger breakout. People are either wary of a live action Eddie Murphy or tired of Ben Stiller. Maybe both? Tower Heist is the sort of film that can show a little bit of legs provided audience reaction is positive (and Jack and Jill will not be a serious threat to its box office next weekend), so maybe the lowered weekend estimate isn't all bad news.

This weekend last year saw road trip comedy Due Date open with $12.2 million on its way to a $32.7 million weekend. That's a decent enough example for Tower Heist, so look for a weekend of $23.2 million.

A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas

The third and entirely unnecessary Harold and Kumar film (though they at least seem to recognize that fact) opens to $5.4 million. This is actually not all that far off from the opening night of Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay, which started with $5.9 million in April of 2008. It should mirror that film's 2.5 weekend multiplier, so we'll give it $13.5 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

It's a much closer race between Tower Heist and Puss in Boots than originally thought, as the Shrek spinoff comes in with $7.8 million in its second Friday, down just 18.8% from last Friday. That's...actually kind of impressive, and should keep it at the top for a second week, unless Tower Heist has an unusually strong remainder of the weekend. Last weekend Puss in Boots managed a 3.56 multiplier and just duplicating that feat would give it $27.7 million for the weekend.

Elsewhere, In Time falls 42% from last Friday to $2.5 million. Call it $7.5 million for the weekend. Johnny Depp's The Rum Diary drops 48% to about $1 million, so we'll go with $2.8 million and take away his Hunter S. Thompson books.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Puss in Boots 27.7
2 Tower Heist 23.2
3 A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas 13.5
4 Paranormal Activity 3 8.1
5 In Time 7.5
6 Footloose 4.5
7 Real Steel 3.2
8 The Rum Diary 2.8
9 Moneyball 2.2
10 The Ides of March 1.7



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