Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 15, 2011

Jeez, Herbie, you're looking rough. Just like Lindsay Lohan.

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The High School Musical'd, Glee'd and So You Think You Can Dance'd up remake of Footloose earned $5.3 million on Friday. That's probably in the upper range of what it was going to make and best recent example is Step Up 3D, which opened to $6.6 million in August of last year and had a $15.8 million weekend. Despite the surprisingly positive reviews, this is not a movie for anyone who existed when the original film was released in 1984. It's headed for a better multiplier than Step Up did, which had the sequel factor and 3D hook working against its opening. Look for Footloose to dance to the top of the box office with $15.3 million.

The Thing

Horror requel (premake?) The Thing earned $3.2 on Friday, good for third place. It's been a pretty rough time for horror films and this is really no different as it'll vanish quickly from here. Give The Thing $9 million for the weekend.

The Big Year

Oh, Steve Martin, if you needed money, why didn't you just ask? The Big Year (also starring Jack Black and Owen Wilson) managed just $1.1 million on Friday. Call it $3.1 million and something everyone involved conveniently leaves off their resumes.

Notable Holdovers

Real Steel falls 48% from last Friday to $4.4 million. It looks like the dancing "teenagers" will just beat it out for the weekend crown, though it's going to be a close one. Last weekend's multiplier for the Hugh Jackman film was a surprisingly good 3.2 but unless there was a large amount of pent-up demand for a Footloose remake that came out overnight, Real Steel will be just short of holding on for a second weekend. A second weekend of $14.7 million seems about right.

Holding fairly decently is The Ides of March, off just 35% from last Friday to $2.2 million. That only keeps it in the middle of the pack of also-rans, though, with an okay second weekend of $7.2 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Footloose 15.3
2 Real Steel 14.7
3 The Thing 9.0
4 The Ides of March 7.2
5 Dolphin Tale 6.4
6 Moneyball 5.7
7 50/50 4.1
8 Courageous 3.4
9 The Big Year 3.1
10 The Lion King 3D 2.6



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