Monday Morning Quarterback Part V
By BOP Staff
July 21, 2011
Vampires or bats?
Kim Hollis: A couple of years ago when The Dark Knight broke the opening weekend record, we honed in on the final Harry Potter film as the most likely to break its record. Now that Harry Potter has done so, are there any films on the horizon that you believe have a legitimate chance and besting the new total?
Edwin Davies: In what amounts to the box office equivalent of a game of leap frog, I think that The Dark Knight Rises has the best chance of overtaking Potter, though the fact that Nolan has opted not to film it in 3D might hobble its chances slightly (even if, artistically, it's probably the smartest move). I'd throw The Avengers into the ring too, but that is at least partially dependent on how well Captain America does. At the moment, The Avengers has the goodwill and box office clout of Thor and the Iron Man films on its side, but if Cap doesn't deliver then it could turn off enough people to stop it from reaching the heights it would need to.
Brett Beach: Breaking Dawn Part 2. It was reaffirming to see the Potter faithful and not-so-faithful turn out like rapid Muggles for the final-go-around but I think the Teams Jacob and Edward contingents will descend like hungry vampires and ravenous wolves and come up closer to a $200 million opening weekend than anyone before (and closer than I would have thought any film could ever do). Breaking Dawn Part 1 will be big but will play like Deathly Hallows 1. The Dark Knight Rises gives me fits. It's not in 3D, but it's following a $533 million grosser. Still, it doesn't have Heath Ledger's death or a comparable performance (that we know of yet) to incite the masses. It may overtake HPDH2 only to get the shaft four months later from BD2.
Jason Lee: I agree with Edwin, as The Dark Knight Rises is the only current contender in my view - but I don't think it'll break DH2's record. I also don't see Breaking Dawn Pt 2 breaking it. DH2 simply had too wide of an appeal - it was (as Reagen noted in the Weekend Forecast) simply a film that was going to have some measure of appeal to anyone that had ever seen the previous movies, read any of the books, or had friends that fell into the two aforementioned categories. I'm hard pressed to think of another movie that will have this broad of a pull. Personally, I think that DH2's opening weekend record will stand much as Spider-Man's record did - lasting through multiple films and multiple contenders, longer than most anticipated at the time.
Joshua Pasch: I agree with Jason's sentiment that DH2's record won't withstand the test of a decade's worth of efforts at overtaking its record. It will fall much sooner than that.
I think Brett has it right. Dark Knight Rises won't cut it. No 3D, no Heath, an awful first teaser trailer. I don't see it happening. Of course, that can change if Bane ends up being as riveting a villain as we think he can be. Also, they are billing it as the END of the franchise, so that will help. If I had to guess now (a ridiculous proposition but I'm doing it nonetheless), it throws under the $157 opening of its predecessor, even if just by a bit.
As for Breaking Dawn, Part II, I think that's where HP7B needs to be concerned for its record. Twilight fans proved they love rushing in to theaters asap, and it will also get the 3D bump (I believe). That kind of insta-demand might shatter records. At the very least, I'd say HP7B's opening day record of $92 million is a risk to fall. The demand for the Twilight flicks is so upfront, it'll just depend on how fast it starts that first day.