Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 19, 2011
The answer? $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Kim Hollis: What are your overriding thoughts about the box office history of the Harry Potter franchise? And what are your expectations for the final box office of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (domestically as well as globally)?
Brett Beach: Consistency, consistency, consistency (it's the "location" of the box-office world). With domestic grosses of (chronologically): $317 million, $261 million, $249 million, $290 million, $292 million, $301 million,and $295 million, if you throw out the high and the low, four of the remaining five were within $10 million of each other. The difference from high to low is only $70 million. Even accounting for higher ticket prices, lowering attendance, IMAX surcharges, the sustainment of quality to fan loyalty to raw numbers is impressive. That the final installment will likely pull in the most domestic and international of the series will be the Bertie Bott Every Flavor Bean (dirt or booger) on top of the icing on top of the cake: I say $350 million domestic and $1.2 billion worldwide.
Edwin Davies: The consistency and the level at which that consistency was maintained. If you look at something like Saw, that was a series which maintained pretty solid numbers for all but its last two instalments, which is something that is notable, but not all that impressive because none of those films made more than $100 million. For a series to have the sort of consistency that the Harry Potter films have had, staying above $250 million for all but one of the entries, is really quite remarkable.
After the initial domestic and international numbers for Friday were in, I said on Twitter that I expected Deathly Hallows Part 2 to make 1.2 billion worldwide. Now that all the numbers are in, I think that it might have a chance of ending up in the 1.4 range, if not higher. Domestically, I think $400 million is a distinct possibility.
Matthew Huntley: Consistency for sure, but I would also say reliability for the film industry as a whole. Just as the Harry Potter book series encouraged a whole new generation of people to read, the film series prompted them (and millions of others) to go to the movies. It seems whenever the industry was nervous about declining attendance, Mr. Potter would come along and quell their fears, and understandably so - the franchise will go on to infuse over $7 billion worth of admissions into the worldwide box-office. During these rough economic times, HP has been one of the powerhouses that's allowed the movie industry stay afloat, and now Hollywood has to put it upon themselves to come up with something new.
As for the overall gross of Deathly Hallows Part 2, I think Brett's domestic prediction is a little bullish, so I predict $320 million stateside and another $700 internationally, which would still allows Harry and friends to cross the $1 billion mark for the first time.
Joshua Pasch: As for part one of the question, I'd say the most remarkable feat box office wise was the ability to rebound from what seemed like a sluggish dip in business with franchise entry #3. It always seemed strange to me that with the fourth entry the franchise became reinvigorated at a time when fans should have been dropping off. That bounce seemed unlikely (or maybe even impossible) to me at the time. Rather, I figured HP4 would throw under HP3, and HP5 under HP4, so on until the final installments were racking in $180 - $200 million or so domestic. I couldn't have been more wrong. It feels good to be wrong.