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Weekend Forecast for June 24-26, 2011

By Reagen Sulewski

June 24, 2011

Hey, look kids! There's Big Ben, and there's Parliament...

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A raunchy and profane comedy, Bad Teacher is attempting to carve out much of the same territory of Billy Bob Thornton's Bad Santa, subtracting out about half the despair and disgustingness of that film. What could have been just a one-note film (and may still be) does seem to have a solid array of jokes in its ads, both by and directed at Diaz, including taunts at her potential suitor Segal, and his passive-aggressive courting, and failing that, revenge. Another comparable recent comedy that comes to mind as a non-stop display of cruelty and embarrassment is Just Friends, made before Ryan Reynolds became Ryan Reynolds.

While this variety of film is often a slow starter and quick finisher, there's some hope that it might fare better than many others like it. Okay, reviews aren't great, and Diaz hasn't been burning up the box office lately, but she's well suited to play an easy-to-hate character, Segal is a rising star, and Timberlake can seemingly do no wrong. This film is ultimately going to live or die on word-of-mouth, but it should at least get a good start of around $17 million.

Green Lantern surprised many with a $53 million opening weekend, after an ad campaign that seemed to be circling the drain. The combination of 3D and nerd loyalty likely kept this superhero film, which some are calling a contender for worst of the year, from hitting rock bottom initially, but one wonders how much can be left in the tank after terrible reviews and the launch of Cars 2, which will steal the kid audience away from what's ending up as a film no adults can really enjoy. While it could have been a lot worse, it should have been a lot better. Look for a drop to around $23 million this weekend.




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Meanwhile, Super 8, in its second weekend, did manage to have some decent carryover, but not nearly enough to turn this into a breakout summer hit. Dropping to $21 million does mean it could get to around $140 million, but I can't help but think this leaves $50 million or more on the table for the J.J. Abrams monster film. With its cheap budget of $50 million, it can't help but be profitable, but so much more seemed possible.

Mr. Popper's Penguins also seems due for a big drop, coming up against the Cars 2 quasi-juggernaut. Family films seem to be the one reliable place where competition can rear its head, and with the weak critical reception for this Jim Carrey/animal film, it's difficult to see Popper earning more than $9 million this weekend.

Many of the summer's early films are already showing exhaustion, with Pirates of the Caribbean falling out of relevancy this week and headed for a $235 million finish. X-Men: First Class should drop to around $6 million and might break $150 million eventually if it's lucky, the Hangover Part II should earn about the same this weekend and wind up with around $260 million total, and Kung Fu Panda 2 will probably run out of steam at $170 million. These aren't terrible totals overall, really, just positively underwhelming ones. Of course you can look at Pirates' nearly $1 billion worldwide total and immediately stop feeling sorry for that film. Fun fact: Johnny Depp is responsible for nearly $5 billion worth of box office receipts worldwide since 2006.


Forecast: Weekend of June 24-26, 2011
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Cars 2 4,115 New 68.6
2 Green Lantern 3,816 0 22.8
3 Bad Teacher 3,049 New 17.4
4 Super 8 3,424 +18 13.3
5 Mr. Popper's Penguins 3,342 +3 9.0
6 The Hangover Part II 2,755 -405 6.2
7 X-Men: First Class 2,633 -742 5.7
8 Bridesmaids 2,021 -552 5.0
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides 2,244 -498 3.8
10 Midnight in Paris N/A N/A 3.7

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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