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Memorial Day 2011 Analysis

By David Mumpower

May 31, 2011

You were on the Real World, weren't you?

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Hello, BOP readers. I trust my American compatriots had a lovely Memorial Day and I trust that my non-American friends had a lovely…Monday. As long time readers are aware, the Memorial Day holiday is among the most lucrative periods on the box office calendar. This goes double for 2011, which has generated much needed revenue for Hollywood studios recovering from one of the slowest early year domestic takes in the past quarter century. None of that mattered this past weekend, however, as we have just witnessed a record shattering holiday period.

How large are the numbers? The standing record for a Memorial Day box office four-day period occurred in 2007 when Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End anchored a $255 million domestic windfall for all titles in release. We didn’t just edge that amount in 2011; the record has been torched by almost 11%. Put that in perspective by considering that 2011 domestic revenue was down 11% from this time last year heading into the Memorial Day period. We went from a pace short of last year’s disappointing box office campaign to one that scorches the most amazing box office the Memorial Day period had seen previously. It’s like that scene in Lottery Ticket where the broke kid who works in the shoe store realizes he has the winning lottery ticket. You’ve seen Lottery Ticket and understand what I’m saying here, right?

Removing Bow Wow’s cinematic triumph from the conversation for a moment (*sigh), this is what we have learned. The titles in domestic release from Friday to Monday earned approximately $282 million and yes, the savvy readers among you immediately recognize the source of most of this. With the final four-day holiday numbers in the books, The Hangover Part II winds up with $135.1 million, $103.4 million of it occurring during the Friday-Monday period. Ergo, 36.7% of all Memorial Day domestic revenue came from one film. Believe it or not, The Hangover II did not skew the picture an unprecedented amount, though. In fact, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End earned $139.8 million out of Memorial Day 2007’s $252 million, meaning it comprised 55.5% of the take. Yes, The Hangover II did spectacularly well, but it was far from the only strong performer.




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BOP has been hard on Kung Fu Panda 2’s performance but we are far from its harshest critics. DreamWorks Animation stock fell to a two-year low this morning and had their lowest closing price in just under two years. That wouldn’t happen unless investors were distinctly dissatisfied with the initial domestic box office performance. Of course, this has become a standard practice with the stock. It seems like no matter what a DreamWorks project does on opening weekend, that stock declines after opening weekend. From that point forward, the price begins to rise again as domestic legs and international receipts trickle in. Seriously, both times DreamWorks Animation released a film last year (How to Train Your Dragon and Shrek Forever After), the stock dropped at the sound of the bell on the next business day. How did those titles perform overall? The two titles combined for worldwide revenue of about $1.25 billion. Mayhap some patience should be shown by the daytraders. But then they wouldn’t be daytraders.

But I digress. The point is that Kung Fu Panda 2 may not have lit the world on fire last weekend, but its five-day total of $66.7 million absolutely crushes the huge 2010 Memorial Day disappointments. Sex and the City 2, the “stronger” performer managed only $51.0 million in five days while Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time was even worse at $40.9 million. A box office disappointment is always relative. In fact, the number one film for the Memorial Day period last year was the afore-mentioned Shrek Forever After. Even though that was a sequel in one of the most beloved franchises in recent memory, its Thursday-Monday Memorial Day total of $61.5 million is $5.2 million short of Kung Fu Panda. Yes, that was a second weekend, but Shrek is the most popular character in the DreamWorks Animation library. Kung Fu Panda 2’s first weekend pacing exceeding its second weekend pacing isn’t that weak a performance, all things considered.

To a larger point, that $60.9 million of Kung Fu Panda 2’s Friday-Monday take added to the $103.4 million of The Hangover 2 means that the new releases accrued $164.3 million of the $282 million Memorial Day total. Throw in Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Bridesmaids and we can add another $70.7 million to the pile. That’s four titles that earned $235 million in four days. I say again that the previous record for ALL Memorial Day holiday films in release had been $252 million. When we add in Thor’s $12.1 million as well as Fast Five’s $6.4 million four-day take, we see that the top six films of 2011 exceeded the entire batch of in-release movies for any prior Memorial Day holiday period. This is why every numbers cruncher in the industry is happily humming a tune today. After five months of horror, the past few days have been nothing but bliss for the bean counters, even the ones at DreamWorks Animation.


     


 
 

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