Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

April 30, 2011

The Brocial Network.

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Sure, it's still April. That doesn't mean summer can't kick off with a bang.

Fast Five

As expected, the latest film in the Fast & the Furious Franchise came out of the gate in dominant fashion, earning $33.2 million on Friday. With a cast that includes Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Dwayne Johnson, it was the perfect antidote to what has so far been a blah 2011. Surprisingly, reviews are even good, so it sounds like the fifth film in the series has a chance at being remembered fondly on top of good box office results. It should have a $76 million total over the weekend, priming audiences for a hot and action-filled summer movie season.


Given all the advertising I've seen for this film on the Disney Channel (hey, I love Phineas & Ferb - don't judge), I believed that Prom had a shot at breaking out. Alas, it wasn't to be, as the film took in only $1.9 million on Friday. Given that the teen-targeted flick had only about a $9 million budget, this isn't too tragic, but it has to be below Disney's expectations. It should recover okay over the weekend for a $6.5 million total.


Hoodwinked Too!: Hood vs. Evil

The sequel no one really wanted earned a mere $1.1 million on Friday. I think that at this point, if the animation looks pretty crappy and the reviews are poor, audiences are sniffing out the bombs pretty easily. It's probably going to come in with $4.5 million and then let us never speak of it again.

Dylan Dog: Dead of Night

This apparently comic-based flick finished well outside the top ten on Fridat, earning only $263,000. Sorry, Brandon Routh. No one wants to see you anymore (well, only if you're playing an evil ex). Give it $600,000 for the weekend and I'm sure it will become a punchline in due course.

Notable Holdovers

By now, we all know that Tyler Perry movies fall off huge in their second weekends. Madea's Big Happy Family is no exception, as it slides 71% down to $3.1 million. It's likely due for $9 million or so.

Water for Elephants also has a steep drop, but keep in mind on all of these films that last Friday was a holiday-inflated Good Friday. The circus romance falls 59% to $2.9 million. It should straighten out over the rest of the weekend to take in around $9.2 million.

African Cats also stumbles, dropping about 72% to $925,000. The documentary should improve over the rest of the weekend, but is still only due for around $3.6 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Fast Five 76.0
2 Rio 15.8
3 Water for Elephants 9.2
4 Madea's Big Happy Family 9.0
5 Prom 6.5
6 Hoodwinked Too!: Hood vs. Evil 4.5
7 Insidious 4.0
8 Soul Surfer 3.7
9 African Cats 3.6
10 Source Code 3.2



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