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Ashley - 50-1. Since I still think the Ometepe alliance will come out on top this week, I have to put Ashley ahead of the Zapatera guys. I really don't think she has much of a chance, but she could last just by being on the right alliance. She's become the nastiest of the Ometepes, rarely having anything nice to say. When it comes time for the alliance to eat its own, I could definitely see her being the first to go.

Steve - 75-1. With an idol floating out there last week, the Ometepes targeted Steve over Mike. With the idol out of play now, I would expect Steve to fall behind Mike on the list now. Either way, he's seen as one of the Zaps leaders and I would fully expect him to pay the price here soon, if Ometepe manages to hold itself together.

David - 100-1. The Ometepes haven't really seen much of David yet. We have. He's a smart guy and he knows he's a smart guy. He was very impressed with Rob's move to boot Matt last week. I'm sure he'll have something to say about that. And the second he tells Rob he thinks it was a genius move...that's the second that Rob will know there's someone out there that thinks like him and he'll be a target. I don't expect David to make it through this episode without heading to Redemption Island.

Mike - 200-1. With the idol gone and nothing to protect him, it's time to start playing "It's Anyone But Mike". He was the Ometepes first choice last week, I don't expect that to change. Further, he stands a chance of beating Matt at RI, which is now something that Rob HAS to be thinking about. I would say that without the necklace, Mike doesn't make it out of the first Tribal tonight.

Matt - 250-1. Wow, did Matt totally blow a good thing last week. Rob was ready to bring him right back into the fold, but Matt made the mistake of actually telling Rob he thought about turning on him. Um, really? "Ya know, Mr. Corleone, I thought about taking you out, but then I changed my mind." Yeah, that was pretty much the Survivor version.

We begin this week's episode with Matt's arrival at Redemption Island. He congratulates himself for being the most naive person to ever play Survivor. He's blown away that he was dumb enough to get blindsided by the same people, twice. He ends with a prayer thanking the Lord for using his stupidity for His glory.

We come back from the break to the next day at Murlonio. Mike and David are discussing how brilliant Rob's play was. David compares it to a mob hit. Dude, why do you think people call him the Robfather? Mike congratulates Rob for the great move. Julie was blown away that they could be so cold blooded. She feels like there's no way to break that barrier now.

Next, Ralph comes up to Ashley to ask if he's next to go. She refuses to tell him anything. He even tells her that if she makes the Final 3, he'll vote for her over Rob. Still, she tells him nothing. Ralph is thoroughly frustrated that they won't give him anything. Cut to Rob talking to the tribe and they decide not to ever talk to one of the other tribe folks without a buddy. They also agree not to decide who goes home until right before Tribal. Rob tells us that voting out Matt accomplished the main goal of bringing his tribe back together. He very much wants an "us vs. them" attitude. He says they're gonna be arrogant about it...well, the rest of his tribe will, but he won't. Apparently, Ashley didn't think Ralph's offer was important enough to tell Rob about. Natalie, however, did. So now that Rob knows Ralph tried to make a deal and Ashley didn't tell him, she's on the list and won't be seeing the Final Three.

Probst sighting! The first immunity challenge tonight starts with Phillip's feather. Apparently, while meditating, he asked for a sign and the feather appeared out of mid air. And that's a good sign for the alliance of the "Otempo...er...Otepe" tribe. Francesqua! Okay, let's get to it. Today's challenge is an obstacle course of sorts. The first leg has them digging for a club that they will use to break a tile. First six to break their tile move on. The next round has them sucking in water, crawling under the trough and spitting into a tube. First three to get their water level to the line, move on to the last stage. The last stage is one of those block pyramid puzzle things. Survivors ready...

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