Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

January 4, 2011

Yes, your 7-9 team really showed their 7-9 team.

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Edwin Davies: True Grit's success overall is, to me, far more impressive because of the scale. As I alluded to in an earlier question, The Coens have made films in the past which at least attempted to be commercial which didn't end up being big hits, so I wouldn't have been surprised if True Grit wound up being one of their dalliances with the mainstream that did okay, made its money back, but didn't set the world alight. That it has been embraced in the way that it has, and that there is a distinct chance that it could wind up making more money than Tron: Legacy and Little Fockers, which we were talking about as the two films most likely to triumph over the holiday period just a scant few weeks ago, is nothing short of spectacular for me.

The King's Speech, which I saw the other day and which is a really entertaining film that belies its status as a "prestige picture", has done pretty well so far, but given the reviews and the pedigree of those involved it was always going to do pretty well. It is a very Academy friendly film that has been released at the most Academy-friendly time of the year, so its success to date is not surprising in the way that True Grit's has been.




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David Mumpower: Since the other aspects of this have been well covered by my counterparts and I've made my feelings clear about the triumph of True Grit, let me expand upon something Reagen mentioned. Box office for limited releases is a bit more complex than for an ordinary release. Whenever the reader sees a huge per-venue average, they are inclined to think that a movie has done very well. That is true to an extent. Per-venue average can be gamed a bit in that it's a shell game of supply and demand. Fewer locations generally means that the only theaters exhibiting a title are the finest in their area. This usually means that they have a higher audience capacity as well as more expensive ticket prices. The wider a release, the more it suffers from the empty theater phenomenon that has occurred during the massive theater count explosion over the past 15 years.

When you compare The King's Speech with its per-venue average of $11,108 to True Grit's $7,920, the former film appears to possess higher demand. Once we factor the difference in locations of 700 as opposed to 3,083, we realize that across the country, True Grit was the much more desired product. When The King's Speech inevitably expands from its current national release pattern to a true wide release of at least double the venue count, its per-venue average will probably fall short of $7,920. And that will be factoring that True Grit will be available in at least a thousand more locations. In terms of box office reception, there is no dispute about which one is doing better.


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